Dan Stickel
Chief Economist · Department of Revenue
35 articles · 15 transcripts · 24 clips
Affiliations
Federal regulators propose safety rules for small and mobile LNG plants
“We are seeing some small-scale sales of gas. So the LNG being sold into the Fairbanks market by truck presently.”
North Slope crude runs $15 above Alaska's spring forecast, budget group says
“we're anticipating an oil price in the, I think, $75 per barrel range for the next fiscal year, and we are expecting that that price will decrease into the future to around $70 per barrel in real terms over the long term.”
Alaska LNG's cheap-gas promise hinges on exports — and on costs staying in line
“this is really the the key slide as far as these matrices go. And this is the sensitivity analysis for the LNG breakeven price into the global market. We talked earlier that futures market prices indicate something in that $8 to $9 range.”
HB 381 exempts Alaska LNG project property from municipal taxes, replaces with volumetric splits
“The state assesses the value and appraises the value of all the oil and gas property, we levy a 20 mills property tax on that property. The way it works in practice is we allow a tax credit for municipal taxes paid.”
Gas-line developer warns Alaska's Senate terms could drive it off
“We estimated under our baseline modeling first payments of the pass-through entity tax of $29 million in 2036, increasing to $65 million in 2041 and up to $358 million by 2051”
Alaska's gas-pipeline bill now carries a tax on Hilcorp and others
“This would apply to all companies, all pass-through entity companies doing business in the state regardless of whether the AK LNG project moves forward or not and would have material state revenue impacts as well as material investment economic impacts for the impacted taxpayers regardless of what happens with the AK LNG project.”
State economist: even with tax breaks, the gas line barely works
“it does look like a challenging project even with the tax relief.”
A pass-through tax, not the pipeline, is the real fight in Juneau
“Provision would have material revenue and economic impacts regardless of if the project proceeds”
The number that quietly sets the state budget: a barrel of oil
“we're anticipating an oil price in the, I think, $75 per barrel range for the next fiscal year, and we are expecting that that price will decrease into the future to around $70 per barrel in real terms over the long term”
The $16 Gas Promise Comes With Fine Print
“we have done analysis and we have detailed analysis coming up later in the presentation. That looks at gas break-even prices.”
Senate Finance demands Phase 1 pipeline math before Alaska LNG tax vote
“given the time and resource constraints with a special session that ends in 4 days, we have maintained our baseline model assumptions at this point.”
Department of Revenue presents Senate Finance with Alaska LNG breakeven modeling across cost and tax scenarios
Alaska LNG needs $9.07 per thousand cubic feet to break even under current law, or $10.69 if capital costs reach $60 billion. • Senate Bill 2001 would lower those breakeven prices to $8.54 and $9.97 respectively, but reduce state revenue from North Slope gas. • Department of Revenue presented the modeling to help Senate Finance evaluate the tax restructuring tradeoff.
Department of Revenue presents Senate Finance with 25-scenario sensitivity analysis on Alaska LNG fiscal impact
Department of Revenue modeled Alaska LNG's fiscal impact under SB 2001 across 25 scenarios through 2062. • Baseline scenario projects $29 billion in net state revenue gains. • Worst-case scenario with $100 per barrel oil and major production losses would cost the state $16.2 billion.
Alaska LNG seeks 90% property tax cut; Kenai Peninsula pushes back
Alaska LNG is seeking a 90 percent property tax cut to proceed, but Kenai Peninsula Borough says the cut would cost local governments about $30 million annually needed to cover project impacts.
Alaska LNG tax bill ties $26.5B in revenue to volume, not value
“The core purpose of the legislation is to create a policy framework for replacing certain state and municipal property taxes with an alternative volumetric tax.”
Senate Finance hears $18 billion revenue trade-off for Alaska LNG tax break
“This bill would reduce total state revenues over life of project from 29.7 down to $22.8 billion, would reduce municipal revenues from 17.3 down to $6.2 billion”
Senate Finance Committee: how do you analyze a $46.2 billion pipeline without the numbers?
“Senator Kiel, through the Chair, I don't know.”
Alaska gas line faces economic challenge even with tax breaks
“in 2033, that value is $9.07. To put that into perspective, current futures market prices for delivered LNG in Asia are in the $8 to $9 range. And so that would be on the high end of potentially competitive under current law”
House Resources gas line bill would cost municipalities $13B under governor's plan
“under the bill before the committee, we assume that the property tax would remain in place. For the gas treatment plant and for the LNG facility. Municipalities have the authority under the legislation before the committee to negotiate down that property tax or potentially replace it with a negotiated equity share”
Senate panel reviews oil tax floor increase projecting $132M annual gain
Senate panel reviewed modeling showing a higher oil tax floor would generate $132 million annually on average, though some years could see revenue decline.
House panel hears gas line tax bill with 15-cent volumetric fee
House panel heard a bill replacing property taxes on the Alaska LNG pipeline with a 15-cent volumetric tax, projected to generate $10 million for the state in 2029.
Senate panel advances gas pipeline bill with reduced community payments
Alaska Senate panel cut community payments for a major gas pipeline from $800 million to $200 million and added the governor's plan to raise oil taxes, advancing the merged bill toward a vote.
House Finance advances fire station grant program after rejecting rural aid amendments
House Finance rejected amendments that would have eased the cost burden on small rural communities seeking fire station grants, keeping the 50 percent local match requirement in place.
Gas tax hike could net Alaska $590M over pipeline life, analysis shows
Raising Alaska's gas production tax by 1 percentage point could generate $590 million over 30 years once the Alaska LNG project exports begin in 2033, without raising in-state gas prices.
Senate panel debates gas pipeline tax structure in 26th hearing
Senate panel debated tax rates for Alaska LNG Monday, with focus on where gas gets taxed and how the state collects revenue under a proposed volumetric system.
House panel hears tax proposal for Alaska LNG project
House panel heard a proposal to cut Alaska LNG's property tax burden from $750 million yearly by 2033 to about $200 million through a volumetric tax on gas volume.
Senate panel doubles oil surcharge for Dalton Highway maintenance in gas pipeline bill
Alaska Senate panel doubled the oil surcharge for Dalton Highway maintenance to 30 cents per barrel, generating roughly $50 million yearly, while cutting local government tax revenue by 90 percent.
Alaska LNG Consultant Flags Potential 50% Return for Developers vs. $1B State Revenue
A consultant warned lawmakers that Alaska LNG developers could net $8 billion annually by 2050. He cautioned his preliminary model may contain errors that require further review.
Alaska LNG tax bill could swing state revenue by hundreds of millions
Alaska's proposed LNG tax bill could swing state revenue by hundreds of millions depending on how regulators interpret rules for separating oil and gas costs, the Department of Revenue warned Monday.
Senate panel advances fishing co-op bill with electronic monitoring
The Senate Resources Committee advanced a bill to legalize set gillnet cooperatives and mandate electronic monitoring on trawl vessels.
Senate panel advances fishing cooperative bill with electronic monitoring
Alaska Senate panel unanimously advanced a bill legalizing fishing cooperatives for set gillnet permit holders, with a five-permit cap and electronic monitoring for trawl vessels.
Oil industry opposes tax provisions in Alaska gas pipeline bill
Alaska's oil and gas industry opposes tax provisions in SB 280, warning they could make some wells uneconomic and create antitrust risks, even if the gas pipeline project never happens.
Senate panel advances gas pipeline tax overhaul with $610M revenue target
Alaska Senate panel voted to replace property tax on gas pipelines with a volumetric tax projected to generate $610 million annually once Alaska LNG reaches full capacity.
House Resources Committee debates LNG equity stakes, rejects wildlife refuge amendments
Alaska House Resources Committee heard testimony on state equity stakes in the Alaska LNG project and rejected five wildlife refuge bill amendments on 5-4 party-line votes Friday.
Senate panel examines LNG project economics, megaproject risks
Senate Resources Committee heard Alaska LNG faces typical megaproject cost and schedule risks. • A proposed 6-cent volumetric tax would generate roughly $2 billion for the state over 35 years but raise the project's effective tax rate to 33 percent, above competing Canadian projects. • Phased construction reduces upfront costs but introduces financing risk if later phases are delayed.
