Dan Stickel

Alaska LNG's cheap-gas promise hinges on exports — and on costs staying in line

“this is really the the key slide as far as these matrices go. And this is the sensitivity analysis for the LNG breakeven price into the global market. We talked earlier that futures market prices indicate something in that $8 to $9 range.”

HB 381 exempts Alaska LNG project property from municipal taxes, replaces with volumetric splits

“The state assesses the value and appraises the value of all the oil and gas property, we levy a 20 mills property tax on that property. The way it works in practice is we allow a tax credit for municipal taxes paid.”

Gas-line developer warns Alaska's Senate terms could drive it off

“We estimated under our baseline modeling first payments of the pass-through entity tax of $29 million in 2036, increasing to $65 million in 2041 and up to $358 million by 2051”

Alaska's gas-pipeline bill now carries a tax on Hilcorp and others

“This would apply to all companies, all pass-through entity companies doing business in the state regardless of whether the AK LNG project moves forward or not and would have material state revenue impacts as well as material investment economic impacts for the impacted taxpayers regardless of what happens with the AK LNG project.”

State economist: even with tax breaks, the gas line barely works

“it does look like a challenging project even with the tax relief.”

A pass-through tax, not the pipeline, is the real fight in Juneau

“Provision would have material revenue and economic impacts regardless of if the project proceeds”

The number that quietly sets the state budget: a barrel of oil

“we're anticipating an oil price in the, I think, $75 per barrel range for the next fiscal year, and we are expecting that that price will decrease into the future to around $70 per barrel in real terms over the long term”

The $16 Gas Promise Comes With Fine Print

“we have done analysis and we have detailed analysis coming up later in the presentation. That looks at gas break-even prices.”

Senate Finance demands Phase 1 pipeline math before Alaska LNG tax vote

“given the time and resource constraints with a special session that ends in 4 days, we have maintained our baseline model assumptions at this point.”

Department of Revenue presents Senate Finance with Alaska LNG breakeven modeling across cost and tax scenarios

Department of Revenue presents Senate Finance with 25-scenario sensitivity analysis on Alaska LNG fiscal impact

Alaska LNG seeks 90% property tax cut; Kenai Peninsula pushes back

Alaska LNG tax bill ties $26.5B in revenue to volume, not value

“The core purpose of the legislation is to create a policy framework for replacing certain state and municipal property taxes with an alternative volumetric tax.”

Senate Finance hears $18 billion revenue trade-off for Alaska LNG tax break

“This bill would reduce total state revenues over life of project from 29.7 down to $22.8 billion, would reduce municipal revenues from 17.3 down to $6.2 billion”

Senate Finance Committee: how do you analyze a $46.2 billion pipeline without the numbers?

“Senator Kiel, through the Chair, I don't know.”

Alaska gas line faces economic challenge even with tax breaks

“in 2033, that value is $9.07. To put that into perspective, current futures market prices for delivered LNG in Asia are in the $8 to $9 range. And so that would be on the high end of potentially competitive under current law”

House Resources gas line bill would cost municipalities $13B under governor's plan

“under the bill before the committee, we assume that the property tax would remain in place. For the gas treatment plant and for the LNG facility. Municipalities have the authority under the legislation before the committee to negotiate down that property tax or potentially replace it with a negotiated equity share”

House panel hears gas line tax bill with 15-cent volumetric fee

House Finance advances fire station grant program after rejecting rural aid amendments

Gas tax hike could net Alaska $590M over pipeline life, analysis shows

Senate panel debates gas pipeline tax structure in 26th hearing

House panel hears tax proposal for Alaska LNG project

Senate panel doubles oil surcharge for Dalton Highway maintenance in gas pipeline bill

Alaska LNG Consultant Flags Potential 50% Return for Developers vs. $1B State Revenue

Alaska LNG tax bill could swing state revenue by hundreds of millions

Senate panel advances fishing co-op bill with electronic monitoring

Senate panel advances fishing cooperative bill with electronic monitoring

Oil industry opposes tax provisions in Alaska gas pipeline bill

Senate panel advances gas pipeline tax overhaul with $610M revenue target

House Resources Committee debates LNG equity stakes, rejects wildlife refuge amendments

Senate panel examines LNG project economics, megaproject risks