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Photo: NASA · Photo source · US government work
EIA forecasts Alaska oil output will rise 13% in 2027 to the most since 2014
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Thursday that Alaska crude production will climb 13% in 2027, to 505,000 barrels a day, the most since 2014.
The agency expects production to rise 6%, or 23,000 barrels a day, this year and 60,000 barrels a day next year. If that happens, those would be the largest increases since the 1980s, when Alaska output peaked at 2 million barrels a day.
"After decades of decline, crude oil production in Alaska is growing, driven by two projects on Alaska's North Slope," the EIA wrote.
Those projects are Pikka and Nuna. Pikka Phase 1, owned by Santos and Repsol, began production in May at 2,000 barrels a day and reached 38,000 by September, according to Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission data the EIA cited. The agency expects Pikka to peak at 80,000 barrels a day this winter, nearly 20% of Alaska's 2025 production. ConocoPhillips' Nuna project, online since December 2024, has averaged 10,000 barrels a day this year and is expected to peak at 20,000.
Third-quarter production rose 4% over the first quarter, the first third-quarter increase in more than 40 years. Summer maintenance normally leaves the third quarter about 7% below the first.
The state's own daily North Slope figures show the same turn. The Department of Revenue put October production at 524,740 barrels a day, up 12% from 467,673 a year earlier. Production from Nov. 1 through Nov. 9 averaged 532,780 barrels a day.
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Stories on what’s next
North Slope Borough Mayor Community Report
North Slope Borough mayor to give community report in Point Hope on Friday
North Slope Borough Mayor Josiah Patkotak gives Point Hope its community report Friday, the last of the borough's village visits this year, after a delay.

NPR-A Grant Application Deadline
Utqiaġvik council to vote on seeking $4.5 million in NPR-A money for city operations
Utqiaġvik's council votes Thursday on letting the mayor seek $4.5 million in NPR-A money for city operations. The state recommended $3 million in January.

Sauk County Historical Society may repatriate Barrow-area cultural items (additional requests due before then)
Museums in Wisconsin and Alabama plan to return 10 cultural items to Utqiagvik's tribe
Two museums, in Wisconsin and Alabama, plan to return 10 cultural items to Utqiagvik's tribal government, among them a doll, a horn ladle and harpoon points.

Kivgiq 2027 Logo Design Submission Deadline
North Slope artists have until Monday to design the logo for Kivgiq 2027
The North Slope Borough wants a logo for Kivgiq 2027, the Iñupiat Messenger Feast revived in 1988. North Slope artists have until 5 pm Monday. No AI art.

Public Comment Period: Oil Search Nanushuk Processing Facility Air Quality Permit AQ1683MSS01 Rev. 3
State plans to approve air permit change for Pikka oil plant on North Slope
Pikka's oil plant wants to trade some nitrogen oxides for volatile organic compounds, and state regulators are preliminarily on board. Comments run to Nov. 16.

Latest
Week of Nov 9
Alaska extends North Slope and Beaufort Sea lease bid deadlines after email trouble
State email trouble pushed Alaska's deadline for North Slope, Beaufort Sea and Foothills oil lease bids to 2 pm Nov. 18. Nearly 8 million acres are up for bid after minimum rates rose to $35 an acre.

GCI closes Quintillion purchase before Utqiagvik backup fiber line is finished
GCI now owns the Arctic coast's only fiber line. It closed the deal before the backup line to Utqiagvik was done, and the seller is chipping in to finish it.

Fort Wainwright reopens Gaffney Gate with three inbound lanes and a new canopy
Fort Wainwright's Gaffney Gate is back open with three inbound lanes, a commercial lane and a new canopy over the guards. Give yourself extra time.

State offers lease for what would be Alaska's first giant data center
Alaska offered STAK Energy a 50-year lease on North Slope land for a giant data center that would run on its own gas power plant, tied to no grid.

Blizzard conditions possible near Utqiagvik under Arctic Coast advisory through Wednesday
Advisory warns of blizzard conditions, 50 mph gusts and more snow near Utqiagvik through 4pm Wednesday. Visibility may drop below one-half mile.

North Slope school budget would use more savings than its draft audit shows
North Slope's school board is set to vote Wednesday on a budget that would use $7.7 million in savings. Its draft audit showed $5.6 million left in June.

Week of Nov 2
State takes comment on North Slope seismic survey and three airport lease extensions
The state is taking comments on a 205-square-mile North Slope seismic survey and on no-bid lease extensions at the Birchwood, Dillingham and Girdwood airports.

North Slope co-op plans to lay Anaktuvuk Pass fiber across the snow in 2028
The North Slope's phone co-op asked the state for 3 more miles for its Anaktuvuk Pass fiber line. Crews would unspool the cable across the snow in early 2028.

More from North Slope
State catalogs 1970s drill notes from 26,000 NPR-A holes to help find North Slope gravel
Seismic crews drilled tens of thousands of holes across NPR-A in the 1970s and logged what they hit. The state cataloged it to help find North Slope gravel.

Alaska oil falls from its highest price since 2008, trimming one windfall estimate
Alaska oil slid 6.6% in two days from its highest price since 2008. One budget group's windfall estimate fell about $400 million in a week. Still way above $75.

ConocoPhillips' Alaska earnings more than triple to $423 million on higher oil prices
ConocoPhillips made $423 million in Alaska last quarter, more than triple a year ago, mostly because oil got pricier, not because it pumped much more.

Kuukpik and SAExploration seek state permit for a winter seismic survey near Nuiqsut
Nuiqsut's village corporation and SAExploration want to run a winter seismic survey over 205 square miles, including ground Santos wants to develop.

North Slope operator gets hearing on nearly $937,000 in proposed gas flaring penalties
Regulators want Mustang Holding to pay nearly $937,000 for burning off gas at its North Slope field without permission. It gets a hearing in January.

State moves to add land to pipeline lease for rock piles to guard against the Sag River
The state proposed adding 26 acres along the Sagavanirktok River to the pipeline's lease so Alyeska can place rock piles up to a half-mile long by the line.

Week of Oct 26
State regulators approve APA's takeover of Badami pipelines on the eastern North Slope
State regulators OK'd APA's takeover of the Badami pipelines, part of a $70 million North Slope buy APA expects to support its drilling starting this winter.

UIC approves a second 2026 payment for its shareholders
UIC shareholders get a second payment this year. The Utqiaġvik corporation now shares amounts only with shareholders. Much of its revenue is federal work.

Coming up
North Slope Borough Mayor Community Report
Tikigaq School, Point Hope
Meeting
Pikka-Quokka 3D Seismic Survey Project Mobilization
Kivgiq 2027 Logo Design Submission Deadline
Public notice
Beaufort Sea Areawide 2026W, North Slope Areawide 2026W, and North Slope Foothills Areawide 2026 Competitive Oil and Gas Lease Sales - Bidding Results Released
Public notice
North Slope Foothills Areawide 2026 Oil and Gas Lease Sale: Bid Results Released
Public notice
About North Slope
The North Slope, governed as the North Slope Borough and also called the Arctic Slope, is the region of Arctic Alaska that stretches from the Brooks Range to the Beaufort Sea. Its communities include Utqiagvik, Kaktovik, Nuiqsut, Wainwright and Atqasuk, Inupiaq villages where subsistence hunting of caribou, muskox and whales is part of life.
The region holds the oil fields of Prudhoe Bay and the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska, and the price of its crude shapes the state budget. Recurring questions concern oil and gas lease sales, drilling permits, developments such as the Willow project, and federal rules that weigh development against subsistence hunting and wildlife such as polar bears.
Deadhorse, with its airport and oilfield camps, serves the industry, and the Dalton Highway and the trans-Alaska pipeline run south from the oil fields toward Interior Alaska. Seasonal snow roads connect villages that have no road link.
More from North Slope
Alaska oil nears its highest price since 2008, far above what the state budgeted
Alaska built its budget on $75 oil. North Slope crude hit $129.71 Wednesday, and if prices stay high the state could take in about $1.7 billion extra.

Weather closes North Slope Borough offices in three communities and Utqiaġvik schools
The North Slope Borough closed its offices in Utqiaġvik, Atqasuk and Wainwright on Thursday over weather and road conditions. Utqiaġvik schools closed, too.

State approves APA's plan for two winter exploration wells near Badami
The state approved APA's plan for two winter exploration wells near Badami, reached by 58 miles of ice road. APA has also agreed to buy Badami's operator.

State proposes giving North Slope Borough 320 acres in the Brooks Range foothills
The state proposed giving the North Slope Borough 320 acres in the Brooks foothills, a week after proposing it get 583 acres in the Kuparuk oil field.

State proposes 50-year Deadhorse Airport lease for an oilfield camp and yard
The state wants to rent nearly 11 acres of Deadhorse Airport for 50 years for a camp and oilfield equipment yard. Rent: about $133,000 a year.

Week of Oct 19
Santos will hold Pikka near 70,000 barrels a day for now, short of its 80,000 target
Pikka briefly hit an 80,000-barrel daily rate, then bad weather and a road crash intervened. Santos will hold near 70,000 so water injection can catch up.

State moves to expand lease for Alyeschem's North Slope methanol and diesel plant
The state moved Friday to give Alyeschem's North Slope methanol and diesel plant a bit more elbow room, adding 11.7 acres to its lease and dropping 9.22.

State proposes giving the North Slope Borough 583 acres in the Kuparuk oil field
The state would hand the North Slope Borough 583 acres inside the Kuparuk oil field, but keep 185 acres with roads, pipelines and part of the operations center.

Company behind the North Slope's winter village trail names two Deadhorse managers
The company that builds the snow road to the North Slope's roadless villages named two Deadhorse shop managers. One has hauled freight down that trail.

USGS estimates North Slope holds 96 trillion cubic feet of gas yet to be found
USGS says the North Slope may hold 96 trillion cubic feet of gas nobody has found yet, about three years of U.S. use. Getting it out is still the hard part.

Alaska opens Arctic oil lease bidding after its best sale in a decade
Alaska opened bidding on nearly 8 million acres of North Slope and Beaufort Sea oil leases, a year after the same sales had their best showing in a decade.

Week of Oct 12
Narwhal Exploration seeks state approval to drill up to three wells in West Harrison Bay
Narwhal Exploration wants to drill up to three oil wells from ice pads in Harrison Bay this winter, a year later than first planned. Comments are due Oct. 30.

Utqiagvik mayor proposes having online sellers collect city taxes, ending vaping tax
Utqiagvik's mayor wants online sellers and booking sites to collect city taxes, and wants to stop taxing vaping products. The council takes it up Thursday.

Park Service proposes ATV access across Gates of the Arctic for Anaktuvuk Pass residents
Anaktuvuk Pass hunters could drive off-road vehicles across Gates of the Arctic under a proposed rule ending a 1986 ban rooted in dictionary definitions.

North Slope oil rule now covers accidental polar bear deaths the agency doesn't expect
North Slope oil companies can seek five more years of polar bear and walrus coverage, now including an accidental death the government says it doesn't expect.

North Slope's comprehensive plan informs its $1.5 billion capital plan, mayor says
North Slope voters just approved up to $1.55 billion in borrowing. The mayor says the borough's long-range community plans will help decide where it goes.

Trump says oil will "drop like a rock" after the Iran war, citing Alaska oil
Trump says oil will "drop like a rock" once the Iran war ends. If he's right, drivers win and Alaska's treasury loses about $35 million per dollar.

State scheduled Dalton Highway closures near Mile 7.5 Thursday night for a load recovery
DOT&PF plans intermittent closures on the Dalton Highway near Mile 7.5 from 7:30 to 9:30 pm Thursday for load recovery. Expect delays in both directions.

DOE awards ASRC subsidiary up to $49.8 million for Prudhoe Bay hydrate test site
The feds are paying an ASRC company up to $49.8 million to maintain a Prudhoe Bay methane hydrate test site and plan a possible second production test.

Up to 5 inches of snow and 40 mph gusts forecast for Dalton and Steese summits
Up to 5 inches of snow and 40 mph gusts on the Dalton, Elliott and Steese summits through Saturday morning. Winter is clocking in for the haul road.

Official results confirm Utqiagvik voters raised marijuana sales tax to 10%
Utqiagvik voters approved raising the city's retail marijuana sales tax from 8% to 10%, final results confirm, 473 to 303.

North Slope voters reelect Patkotak and approve all 11 bonds worth about $1.55 billion
North Slope voters gave Mayor Josiah Patkotak another term and the borough permission to borrow up to $1.55 billion for water, power, schools and more.

North Slope Assembly backs next step for roads linking three Slope communities
The North Slope Assembly backed moving roads to link Utqiaġvik, Atqasuk and Wainwright toward review. The mayor wants them paid for alongside an oil-area road.

Utqiaġvik lagoon death prompts questions on rescue training
After a young man died in an Utqiaġvik lagoon, an assembly member questioned fire training and equipment. The mayor said training is being rebuilt.
