Storm to raise water up to 5 feet above the tide line, Golovin to Wainwright

Water along much of Alaska's western and northern coast could rise 2 to 5 feet above the normal high tide line this week, and forecasters say it is likely to stay elevated through several tide cycles rather than one. The National Weather Service office in Fairbanks issued seven products Monday covering the coast from Golovin to Wainwright, all running through Friday, Sept. 11.

The Weather Service had forecast more for Golovin. A Coastal Flood Watch issued late Sunday called for water 4 to 6 feet above the normal high tide line there, with water possibly reaching the lowest lying buildings. Forecasters cancelled that watch at 1:07 p.m. Monday and replaced it with a high surf advisory forecasting 3 to 4 feet. Forecasters also call for 3 to 5 foot rises from Elim to Unalakleet.

Forecasters attribute the event to a developing Siberian low expected to move northeast toward the Chukchi Sea and set up southwesterly flow across the West Coast, driving gale force winds into Norton Sound and Kotzebue Sound. The wind blows across a long stretch of open water, and that distance is what turns it into water rise.

"With the strong southwesterly winds continuing for roughly 48 hours, there will be multiple high tide cycles that will be elevated," the discussion states.

The timing is expected to run south to north. Water is forecast to begin rising Wednesday along Norton Sound and the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, peak Thursday night and stay high into Friday. On Kotzebue Sound and the northwest Arctic coast, the rise is expected to start early Thursday, peak Friday morning and continue into Saturday.

Forecast rises vary by stretch of coast, ranging from 3 to 5 feet on the Western Arctic and Northwest Arctic coasts and eastern Norton Sound down to 1 to 2 feet along the Yukon Delta Coast, with most other areas, including Shishmaref, Kivalina and the Seward Peninsula, in the 2 to 4 foot range. Gusts are forecast at 50 to 60 mph in the north and 40 to 50 mph farther south.

Two high wind watches sit above the surf advisories, one covering the Bering Strait Coast, including Shishmaref, Diomede and St. Lawrence Island, beginning Wednesday evening, and the other covering the Western Arctic Coast beginning late Wednesday night. Both forecast southwest winds of 25 to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph, and both name damaged property and power outages as risks.

Each of the surf products says localized beach erosion may occur. The watches remain watches, not warnings.

Offshore, small craft advisories are up in Norton Sound and Kotzebue Sound. A gale warning covers the waters from Kiska to Attu, where the system is passing.

The remnants of Typhoon Merbok struck between Sept. 15 and Sept. 20, 2022, affecting roughly 1,300 miles of Alaska coastline and damaging 40 communities, according to a University of Alaska Fairbanks climate assessment. The resulting federal declaration, DR-4672, covered five regional educational attendance areas, the units FEMA uses to draw declaration boundaries in Alaska, including Bering Strait and Lower Yukon, which cover most of the coastline now under advisory.

FEMA approved 873 households under the individuals and households program for a total of about $6.8 million. Public assistance obligations came to about $90.9 million, of which roughly $79.3 million is permanent work. Hazard mitigation added about $1.6 million. Four years on, the file has no closeout date. Alaska carries 25 severe storm declarations on the federal record.

The records reviewed for this account are National Weather Service products and FEMA data. No tribal government, city government, borough or state agency in the advisory area appears in them. What communities from Golovin to Wainwright are doing to prepare is not part of that record.

The weather service says it will update the advisories and watches as the low approaches.