A storm could raise water 4 to 6 feet at low-lying Norton Sound villages

A storm moving into western Alaska could raise water 4 to 6 feet above the normal high tide line near Koyuk and Elim early next week, the steepest rise in a set of coastal advisories issued for the system. In communities that sit only a little above sea level, water that high is a serious matter, not a nuisance tide.

The National Weather Service issued a high surf advisory for Eastern Norton Sound covering the Monday and Tuesday high tides, warning of beach erosion, high surf and wave run-up, and telling residents to take precautions to protect property. Stebbins, Saint Michael and Unalakleet fall on the lower end of that 4-to-6-foot range.

What that can mean for these communities is on the record. When Typhoon Merbok's surge hit western Alaska in September 2022, the National Park Service documented villages including Koyuk forced to evacuate and shorelines cut back, an evacuation-level hazard rather than a high tide. Nothing in the current forecast points to damage on that scale, but the precedent is why a 4-to-6-foot rise in these places draws attention.

Other stretches of coast face smaller rises. A separate advisory for the Yukon Delta Coast forecasts water 1 to 3 feet above the high tide line, highest toward Emmonak and Kotlik, with the same risks of erosion and run-up. Elsewhere, from the Seward Peninsula up to the Arctic coast, forecasters expect water generally 1 to 4 feet above normal, driven by a Bering Sea low moving north into the Chukchi Sea on Monday.

Forecasters cautioned that the water-level forecast could still shift over the weekend, and a wind shift to the west-northwest on Tuesday could hold water levels up into Wednesday along the Arctic coast.