State biologists recommend a 26% cut to Norton Sound red king crab limit for 2027

State biologists are recommending a smaller Norton Sound red king crab catch for 2027. This year's harvest ran over its limits.

In an assessment posted Thursday for federal fishery advisers, Alaska Department of Fish and Game biologists Caitlin Stern and Katie Palof recommend a 2027 catch ceiling of 221,000 pounds, about 26% below this year's. They would also lower the overfishing limit to 315,000 pounds from 426,000.

This summer's commercial catch topped the state's harvest target by 16.8%. The assessment points to the fishery's last two days as one factor: between the state's June 23 announcement that it was closing and the noon June 25 closure, catches ran higher than projected.

Counting estimated deaths of crab thrown back, the total ran 13.6% over this year's catch ceiling. It stayed under the overfishing limit, so overfishing didn't occur.

Males measuring 134 millimeters or more across the shell made up a record 34% of the summer catch, and average weight hit a record 3.7 pounds. The only other years above 20% were 1981 and 1982. The biologists suggest large males may be dying less often of natural causes, or moving in ways that put more of them in front of the fleet.

Thirty-one boats landed 287,002 pounds in the open-access summer fishery, at an average $11.80 a pound.

Next year, mature males in the stock are estimated at 61% of their long-term average. The stock counts as overfished below half. At a fishing rate close to recent years', all of the biologists' models project a dip, then a slow rise that stays above that line through 2031. No trawl survey was done in 2026, which the authors list as added uncertainty.

The council's Crab Plan Team reviews the assessment Nov. 5, and the North Pacific Fishery Management Council is scheduled to set 2027 limits in December in Anchorage. NOAA has also invited tribes to consult on the limits.