Scientists back a 2.5% lower 2027 ceiling for Bering Sea, Aleutian northern rockfish

Scientists who advise the North Pacific Fishery Management Council agreed this month that next year's catch ceiling for northern rockfish in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands should drop 2.5%, to 17,784 metric tons.

The ceiling, called the acceptable biological catch, caps how much managers can let boats take. It's well above what the fleet actually fishes. This year's allowable catch rises to 12,000 tons on Oct. 30, about two-thirds of the current 18,232-ton ceiling, under a federal rule that added 1,800 tons.

Boats have already caught more than the scientists projected for the whole year. The stock assessment projected a 2026 catch of 7,905 tons, saying catch through July was up from recent years. By Sept. 8, the fleet had already caught 8,389 tons, according to the council's Scientific and Statistical Committee.

The assessment found no concerns about recent catch and biomass trends. The stock isn't overfished, and it wasn't subject to overfishing in 2025. A 2024 Aleutian Islands survey estimated 429,000 tons of northern rockfish, up 49% from the 2022 survey. If fishing continues at recent rates, the authors project spawning females will decline from 64% of their estimated unfished level in 2027 to 62% in 2031.

The new number comes from a projection, not a full assessment. A full assessment was scheduled for 2025 but wasn't done because of the 2025 federal government shutdown. The next one is set for 2027.

The committee agreed Oct. 6 with the authors' recommendation, with no reduction from the maximum allowed. The council is set to adopt final 2027 limits in December.