State biologists recommend a 26% cut to Norton Sound red king crab ceiling for 2027

Alaska Department of Fish and Game biologists Caitlin Stern and Katie Palof recommend cutting the 2027 Norton Sound red king crab catch ceiling to 221,000 pounds, about 26% below this year, in an assessment posted Thursday for a federal advisory team. They would also lower the overfishing limit, the hard ceiling, to 315,000 pounds from 426,000.

The Norton Sound red king crab stock assessment puts this year's total fishing mortality at 338,628 pounds: crab landed plus estimated deaths of discarded crab. The total ran 13.6% over the 298,000-pound catch ceiling the North Pacific Fishery Management Council set last December, but stayed under the overfishing limit, so overfishing did not occur. NOAA has since invited tribes to consult on next year's limits, Alaska News reported Oct. 23; that story noted this year's ceiling had already been cut by about a third from 2025.

The commercial catch topped the state's 268,000-pound harvest target by 16.8%. The department sets that target, called the guideline harvest level, by applying a harvest rate to its estimate of legal male crab so the catch stays under the council's ceiling.

The authors tie part of the overage to the last two days of the 10-day summer fishery: catch between the department's June 23 closure announcement and the noon June 25 closure ran higher than earlier catches projected.

The department's season summary reported 31 vessels landed 287,002 pounds in the open access summer fishery, 125% of their share. The crab sold for an average $11.80 a pound, and the summer catch was worth $3.5 million including community development quota groups' share, as Alaska News reported Sept. 1.

Under the recommended model, 2027 mature male biomass is estimated at 3.50 million pounds, 0.61 of its average since 1980. The stock counts as overfished below half that average, though it is not under a rebuilding plan. At a fishing rate of 0.10, close to recent years, all models project a near-term decline, then a slow rise that stays above that threshold through 2031. At 0.15, all but the base model project it dipping below.

Neither the state nor NOAA ran a trawl survey in 2026, which the authors list as added uncertainty. They score the assessment itself at "increased concern" and recommend keeping the 30% buffer, which sets the catch ceiling 30% below the overfishing limit.

This summer's crab were unusually big. Males 134 millimeters or more made up a record 34% of the summer catch, and average weight hit a record 3.7 pounds.

The council's Crab Plan Team reviews the assessment virtually Nov. 5. Written comments are open on the council's meeting page until 5 pm Nov. 4. The council's preliminary schedule has it adopting the 2027 limits at its Dec. 4-9 meeting in Anchorage, after which the Alaska Department of Fish and Game sets the commercial harvest target.