Scientists recommend lower 2027 overfishing limit for Bering Sea and Aleutian skates

Federal and university scientists recommend a 2027 overfishing limit of 40,137 metric tons for the 16 skate species of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, down from 43,285 this year. The figure comes in a draft assessment the North Pacific Fishery Management Council's Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands Groundfish Plan Team is scheduled to review Nov. 18.

The recommended acceptable biological catch would fall to 33,163 tons from 35,833. Under the federal rule, total allowable catch, the limit fishermen actually face, cannot exceed acceptable biological catch, which cannot exceed the overfishing limit. Both the assessment and its companion evaluation describe themselves as peer-review drafts, not agency determinations.

No fishery targets skates. Most are caught by longliners fishing for Pacific cod. Catch is estimated at 17,205 tons for 2026.

The authors, Cindy A. Tribuzio, Mary Elizabeth Matta and Steve Barbeaux of the Alaska Fisheries Science Center and Matt Cheng of the University of Alaska Fairbanks, recommend a new model for Alaska skate, the most abundant species. The model used since 2014 had settings hitting their allowed limits and failed stability tests the new one passes. The model's age data are no newer than 2015. More than 500 skate vertebrae have been collected since 2025, but the authors write that the center's aging program lacks capacity to age them and has only one person with skate experience. The older model would give Alaska skate a 2027 overfishing limit of 28,585 tons, against 27,074 under the new one and 30,140 this year.

The authors find Alaska skate is not overfished, projecting 2027 female spawning biomass of 98,154 tons against an overfished threshold of 54,552. A companion evaluation puts eastern Bering Sea Alaska skate survey biomass 24% below its reliable long-term average. In the Aleutians, Alaska skate is 63% below average. The leopard skate, found only in the Aleutians, has declined 89% in survey biomass since 2010, when reliable identification of the species began, and sits 74% below average.

Catch records lump leopard and Alaska skates together, so leopard skate catch alone cannot be tracked. The authors write that managing the species as one group can mask critical declines. They still recommend no cut below the maximum catch, writing that Alaska skate biomass is well above target levels with a strong incoming group of young fish, and that a cut for the other skates would be ineffective because the complex has a single limit, Alaska skate dominates it and skates are not targeted. The companion evaluation calls for expanded leopard skate research, including whether the species could get its own stock assessment.

Written comments for the Plan Team meeting close Nov. 13 at 6 pm AKST. The council is scheduled to adopt 2027 limits at its Dec. 4-9 meeting in Anchorage and takes written comments until Nov. 27.