Fish and Game forecasts a strong 49 million sockeye run in Bristol Bay next summer

The Alaska Department of Fish and Game expects 49.3 million sockeye salmon to return to Bristol Bay next summer, a run it rated "strong" in a forecast released Friday.

If the run arrives as forecast, about 34 million of those fish would be available for harvest in the bay, with another 1.3 million in the South Peninsula's June fishery. About 14 million would make it upriver to spawn. That's fish available for harvest, not a promised catch.

By the department's yardstick, a strong run is anything from 44 million to 55 million fish. Recent runs have been bigger. Bristol Bay topped 50 million every year from 2015 through 2025, before this summer's came in at 45.7 million, the first under 50 million since 2014. Even so, this year's salmon catch was worth a preliminary $264 million to fishermen, more than in 2025, when the run was bigger.

Next year's forecast is 3% below the bay's average for the last 20 years and 31% above its long-term average.

It is also higher than a preliminary forecast from scientists at the University of Washington and the University of Alaska Fairbanks, who in August put the 2027 run at 44.2 million. They called that number "advisory rather than a formal forecast," with their full forecast due this month.

The department gives an 80% chance that the run lands somewhere between 35.5 million and 63.1 million fish. Over the last 20 years, its forecasts have come in low by about 13% on average, missing by as much as 36% too low in 2014 and 21% too high in 2011. This year's run was 4% above the preseason forecast, according to the department's season summary.

The department expects all nine river systems in the forecast to meet their spawning goals. Egegik has the biggest forecast, 12.2 million fish, followed by the Wood River at 8.2 million and the Kvichak at 7.3 million.

In the Nushagak District, king salmon are a stock of concern, and a state management plan for those kings sets the upper ends of the sockeye goals on two rivers: 3.02 million fish for the Wood River and 1.75 million for the Nushagak River. The Nushagak's king salmon index this summer was 36,339, below its goal of 55,000 to 120,000.