Southeast Alaska pink salmon harvest forecast at 67 million fish, most since 2013

State and federal biologists on Oct. 28 forecast a 2027 harvest of 67 million pink salmon in Southeast Alaska, the biggest catch since 2013 and more than three times what the fleet landed this year.

When seining closed in September, this year's regional pink catch stood at about 19.8 million fish, at the low end of a normal year. Seiners made landings on 199 permits, and the average Southeast seine permit sold last year for $125,000, the lowest since 2010.

NOAA Fisheries and the Alaska Department of Fish and Game rate the 2027 outlook "excellent," a category that starts at 48 million fish. A catch of 67 million would rank fourth on record. In 2013, the fleet caught 94.7 million.

Their range is wide, though. The agencies put an 80% chance on the harvest landing between 42 million and 98 million fish.

The forecast comes mostly from a summer survey that tows a net through upper Chatham and Icy straits to catch young pink salmon. This year's index of young pinks was the highest since 2016, eighth in 30 years of surveys, and the agencies say above-average catches in nearly every tow, across a wide area, give them confidence in the excellent rating. Cool water in spring and early summer also figured in.

This year's survey was also different. Crews added weight to the trawl doors, the boards that hold the net open, and the boat towed about half a knot faster. The agencies say the change "likely increased catches in 2026," but they can't account for how much until the new doors have been used for several years. They say the wide range should cover that uncertainty.

They changed the gear because they worried slow towing had led them to underestimate the last two big odd-year harvests. In 2021, they forecast 28 million pinks and the fleet caught 48.5 million. In 2023, they forecast 19 million and the catch was 48 million. Both landed above the agencies' range. Misses have gone the other way too: the agencies' chart shows about 55 million forecast for 2015 and about 35 million caught.

Past surveys this strong have been followed by harvests ranging from 35 million to 95 million fish, averaging 59 million.

Pink salmon live two years, so next year's fish were spawned in 2025. The department's aerial-survey index of pinks reaching spawning streams that year was 14.14 million, and spawning goals were met or exceeded in all three parts of Southeast.

The forecast doesn't set the catch. The department will manage the seine fishery during the season based on aerial surveys of spawning streams and how fishing is going, though the forecast helps shape the season plan.

Seiners were paid about $154.1 million at the dock for all five salmon species in 2013, the last time the pink harvest topped 67 million, and about $88.1 million in 2021.

Fishermen, processors and managers meet Dec. 1 in Ketchikan to go over this season and start planning for 2027.