Bristol Bay's 2026 sockeye run falls below 50 million for first time since 2014

Bristol Bay fishermen caught fewer sockeye this summer, and earned more for them. The Alaska Department of Fish and Game's 2026 Bristol Bay salmon season summary, released Tuesday, puts the inshore sockeye run at 45.7 million fish. That is 8% below the 49.6 million average for 2006 through 2025, and the first run under 50 million since 2014. Preliminary exvessel value for all species reached $264.0 million, 21% above the 20-year average of $207.8 million, on a sockeye price of $1.72 a pound and an average fish of 5.0 pounds. Prices may not include incentives for icing, bleeding, floating or production bonuses.

The commercial sockeye harvest of 30.1 million fish came in 7% under the 32.3 million preseason forecast, though the run finished 4% above the 44.1 million inshore projection. Baywide escapement totaled 15.6 million.

Performance varied substantially by district. Ugashik's run came in 37% above forecast and Egegik's 26% above; Nushagak's fell 16% below and Togiak's 43% below. Togiak was the only system to miss its escapement goal's lower bound, with 119,298 fish against a range of 120,000 to 270,000.

ADF&G's 2025 summary recorded a 56.7 million inshore run, 41.2 million sockeye harvested and $215.3 million in exvessel value. At the Board of Fisheries' Bristol Bay finfish meeting on Jan. 13, Cole Weaver said, "As we've seen before, recent years show much higher sockeye abundance than anything observed historically." A preliminary 2027 forecast projects a 44.2 million run and a 28.6 million harvest, with the formal University of Washington number due in November.

Chum and coho harvests stayed below their 20-year averages: chum at 457,100 fish, 53% below, and coho at 55,100, 40% below. The preliminary Chinook harvest of 10,700 fish was the highest since 2019, but the department cautions against comparing it with historical averages. It began counting removals from processor production reports as well as fish tickets after chronic underreporting, and the Board of Fisheries barred releasing Chinook in the Nushagak District beginning in 2026. The Nushagak Chinook in-river index at Portage Creek sonar was 36,339 fish, below the escapement goal range of 55,000 to 120,000; the department says it managed the stock more conservatively than the stock-of-concern plan required.