The state is being asked to bank on a gas line price it may never fully see

Alaska is weighing whether to put money and tax breaks behind an 800-mile gas pipeline whose developer says the definitive cost may never be made public. Legislators have already spent months trying, with limited success, to pry a firm number out of the company.

The developer, Glenfarne, took over 75 percent of the state-owned Alaska LNG project from the Alaska Gasline Development Corporation in March. For much of the spring it declined to give the Legislature its cost estimates, with company president Adam Prestidge arguing that disclosing them would put the project "at a competitive disadvantage" in negotiations with suppliers and buyers.

The company gave ground in June. After meeting with the co-chairs of Senate Finance, Prestidge presented a range: $44.5 billion to $54.5 billion for the full project, $13.2 billion to $16.9 billion for the pipeline alone. Even that isn't the real number. Prestidge said the detailed engineering breakdown isn't finished, so no definitive figure exists yet, and the ultimate cost likely won't be released.

That uncertainty sits under two decisions with public money attached. Lawmakers advanced a bill this spring cutting taxes on the project by roughly 85 percent for 30 years. Separately, AGDC has told the Legislature the state's 25 percent ownership carries the right, but not the obligation, to invest further, potentially about $800 million toward the pipeline's first phase.

Glenfarne says it would support barring cost overruns from being passed to the state or regulated ratepayers, and Enstar, near a fixed-price gas deal with the company, says overruns wouldn't reach its customers. Utilities still have reason to want the number: Cook Inlet gas is expected to grow scarce and costly by the early 2030s, leaving Southcentral to plan around North Slope gas whose delivered price depends on what the pipeline finally costs.