NWS tracks Bering Sea low that could raise Yukon Delta water 1 to 3 feet

A low-pressure system moving through the southern Bering Sea Thursday through Saturday could push water 1 to 3 feet above the mean high water line along the southern Yukon Delta coast, the National Weather Service in Fairbanks said Monday. The advisory took effect at 3 p.m. Monday and runs until 4 p.m. Tuesday.

The most likely track, south of the forecast area, would bring only modest rises above normal high water. A track farther north raises the chance of high surf. "We will continue to monitor this system closely," the weather service said.

The delta remains exposed to storm-driven surges through an open-water season that runs into mid-November. It has faced repeated flooding threats this year, including special weather statements Sept. 13 and Sept. 14 and high surf advisories in August near Emmonak and Kotlik. At Kotlik, the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys documented 10 flooding events between 1964 and 2019, with damages totaling about $12.1 million.

A 2014 study in the journal Arctic found storm surges in 2005, 2006 and 2011 pushed floodwater 27 to 32 kilometers inland, and historical drift-line mapping shows flooding reaching 37 kilometers inland. The study's authors say hazard assessments may underestimate that inland extent and its ecological impacts.