Federal scientists recommend 20% cut to Alaska's sablefish catch limit for 2027

Federal scientists are recommending a ceiling on Alaska's sablefish catch next year that's about 20% lower than this year's, even though they call the stock "extremely healthy."

The draft stock assessment, posted Nov. 6, puts the 2027 limit at 37,436 metric tons, down from 47,008 tons this year. Sablefish, also known as black cod, are worth about $96 million a year to the fishery, according to the Alaska Longline Fishermen's Association.

The cut is smaller than the fleet feared. In October, the same scientists, Daniel Goethel and Matthew Cheng, showed that a new model would have lowered this year's limit by about 32%, and fishermen pushed back. The authors said then that the figure wasn't a 2027 forecast. The new draft doesn't explain in plain terms why the 2027 number came in higher.

Nothing is final. The figure is the scientists' recommended upper limit on the catch. The North Pacific Fishery Management Council will recommend the actual catch limit in December, and it can set it lower.

Every region's limit would drop, and in two eastern Gulf of Alaska areas the proposed limits are below what boats have already caught this year. In the Southeast Outside area, the proposed 2027 limit is 4,492 tons; boats there had landed 4,865 tons by mid-October. West Yakutat's would be 2,246 tons, compared with 2,271 tons caught so far. The Aleutian Islands would see the biggest drop, 34%, but boats there catch only a small share of what they're allowed, the authors estimate.

The scientists say the lower number comes mostly from changes in how they crunch the data. The spawning population is at 64% of what it would be without fishing, they say. They also flag some warning signs: the overall stock didn't grow this year, the number of young fish joining it may be slipping back toward average, and in the past the spawning population has dropped sharply after several years of catches above about 30,000 tons.

Not everyone is sold on the new model. The council's science committee said in October that the model's good test results appeared to come from "cancelling biases rather than an appropriate set of assumptions." The council's Advisory Panel, which includes industry members, voted 18-0 to ask for more model runs, including a three-year phase-in. The draft doesn't include one.

A team of scientists that reviews stock assessments takes up sablefish Nov. 16 in Seattle and online, and written comments to that team close Nov. 13. The council meets Dec. 4 through 9 at the Egan Center in Anchorage, with comments due Nov. 27, and a federal rule early next year would put the final limits in place.