Chukchi coastal waters expected to become ice free within days, NWS says

The National Weather Service Alaska Sea Ice Program expects navigational waters along the Alaska coast of the Chukchi Sea to become ice free in the next few days, according to a forecast issued Monday afternoon and valid through Saturday, Sept. 5. An earlier forecast, issued Aug. 26 and valid only through Aug. 31, had said navigational waters from Utqiagvik south past Point Franklin, Icy Cape and Point Hope would likely remain ice-free, with confidence stated as high. The forecast does not extend beyond Aug. 31, and the Arctic-wide minimum, when sea ice typically reaches its lowest point of the year, is not expected until mid-September.

That earlier product said more about the Chukchi. Analyst Michael Lawson of the Alaska Sea Ice Program wrote that "navigational waters along the Alaska coastline will remain in open water with a stream of marginal ice flowing from Hanna Shoal with the currents to north of Utqiagvik." Ice in the Hanna Shoal area was degrading quickly, and the main Chukchi ice edge was described as brash open pack ice.

The Beaufort is not there yet. Monday's forecast lists its zones as ice covered, with a very open marginal ice edge running from about Oliktok Point to 50 nautical miles northeast of Point Barrow. Easterly winds Thursday through Saturday should push the ice westward. The Bering Sea and Cook Inlet are ice-free and expected to stay that way through the five-day forecast window.

That regional easing sits inside a broader picture that is still far from ice-free. As of Aug. 30, major sea ice analyses ranked Arctic-wide extent between 11th and 15th lowest on record: 11th in the NSIDC Sea Ice Index, 12th in the EUMETSAT OSI SAF and JAXA analyses, and 15th in the U.S. National Ice Center/NSIDC Multisensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent.

Open coastal water does not mean an empty ocean. Rick Thoman, in a 2023 analysis of sea ice minimums near Alaska, noted the Chukchi Sea as defined by NSIDC extends to about 78 degrees north, with most residual September ice sitting near that far boundary.