Bristol Bay hit its sockeye forecast. Prices are a different story.

Bristol Bay's sockeye run came in near what the state predicted, more than 43 million fish against a 44.05 million forecast, and the fleet caught roughly 28.5 million of them. Strong by volume, it is running about 40 percent behind last year in value.

The Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute put the bay's sockeye harvest value 40 percent below the same point in 2025 on a comparable catch. Per-pound prices have slid for two seasons, and a run that meets its forecast can pay a fleet less than the year before when the market is soft.

Abundance isn't the issue. The 2026 run falls below the 61-million ten-year average but well above the 37.4-million average going back to 1963, and districts like Egegik outran their forecasts. Fish and Game's preseason numbers have under-forecast the real run by about 14 percent on average since 2006, so the final count may climb higher.

The market is what moved. Bristol Bay landed record volumes for years, topping out at the 79-million inshore run of 2022, into a global sockeye glut that pushed dock prices down. Fish that once brought a windfall now compete against every other sockeye for sale.

Conservation groups add a caution to the boom-year numbers. SalmonState argues that strong returns can mask risks to habitat and future productivity, and that escapement goals must be met even in high-harvest years.