Rose, Holdmann say Southcentral gas imports look unavoidable and urge state policy

Chris Rose, who founded the Renewable Energy Alaska Project, and Gwen Holdmann, who founded the University of Alaska Fairbanks' Alaska Center for Energy and Power, said Wednesday that Southcentral Alaska will probably have to import natural gas, and that the state needs to get its utilities working in the same direction.

Rose said it is "very unlikely" that the utilities that rely on natural gas in the southern Railbelt will have any way to replace it other than importing it. "Unless there's some major gas discovery that none of us know about, can get online fast enough, I unfortunately don't think that we're going to see that kind of replacement," he said.

"I don't see any way that we can avoid that," Holdmann said. Importing gas in the near and midterm "seems pretty unavoidable while we're working on other solutions," she said.

They spoke at a REAP webinar on a new book about Alaska's microgrids, to which both contributed chapters.

Hilcorp and Chugach Electric told lawmakers in September that Southcentral will not have enough gas to get through the winter of 2029 without imported liquefied natural gas or North Slope gas, Alaska News reported. In June, Chugach's chief executive told members the utility will pursue importing LNG if no in-state supply is available, Alaska News reported.

Rose said utilities' talk of importing LNG "was totally predictable, talked about for 10 or 15 years, and now seems like it's a surprise and an emergency."

Holdmann said utilities are spending "lots and lots of time and dollars" on three competing import proposals. A new governor and Legislature have "an opportunity here to knock heads around a little bit to the extent that that's needed," she said.

Rose said the state's energy institutions are "kind of at misalignment." Alaska has no energy department, he said, the Alaska Energy Authority doesn't have much "policymaking horsepower," and the Regulatory Commission of Alaska "does not have a vision to execute." He compared the Railbelt to Portugal, where he moved last year. Portugal gets 71% of its electricity from renewables because it runs as one integrated grid, he said, and the Railbelt does not.

Rose cited a comment in the webinar chat from Tom DeLong of Golden Valley Electric Association that Railbelt utilities' policies are set by their boards. "It's the boards of these rail belt utilities, not the CEOs, who really set the direction," Rose said. The Railbelt has many utilities with visions that don't always align, he said.

He said he worries a long-term import contract could keep the Railbelt from "looking hard at some of the renewable opportunities" it has. REAP has argued for using less gas to make electricity so more is saved for heating, he said.