Preliminary federal assessment would cut 2027 Kenai sockeye harvest ceiling about 80%

Federal scientists' preliminary 2027 numbers would cut the Kenai River late-run sockeye harvest ceiling in Cook Inlet's federal waters by about 80%, under a stock assessment posted Nov. 13. The Cook Inlet Salmon SAFE Team at the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) recommended a preliminary 2027 acceptable biological catch, the science ceiling on harvest, of 184,408 Kenai sockeye, down from 937,993 this year.

The North Pacific Fishery Management Council added the proposed 2027 Cook Inlet limits to its Dec. 4-9 meeting in Anchorage. A draft schedule has the council recommending proposed limits for the federal drift gillnet fleet Friday, Dec. 4. Written comments are due at noon Friday, Nov. 27.

The preliminary Kenai overfishing limit, a separate and higher threshold, is 295,774 fish, about 77% below this year's. For sockeye, that limit equals the forecast run, minus the escapement target (the number of fish that must reach the spawning grounds), minus the expected harvest in state waters. The preliminary report does not give the 2027 forecasts behind the new numbers.

Kasilof River sockeye would drop about 39%, to 297,017 fish from 489,936. The federal fleet caught 608,508 sockeye in 2026. Federal waters supplied about 75% of the Upper Cook Inlet drift gillnet catch of each sockeye stock.

The report keeps the 60% safety margin on coho, leaving the coho ceiling at 26,805 fish. "This recommendation reflects the highest level of concern for any salmon stock harvested in the CI EEZ," the SAFE Team wrote, referring to Cook Inlet's federal waters. The team said Upper Cook Inlet coho harvests were at historically low levels from 2024 through 2026.

The fleet caught 38,591 coho in 2026, above both the catch limit of 16,619, which was set below the science ceiling, and the ceiling itself, but under the overfishing limit of 67,013. NMFS closed all salmon fishing in federal waters Aug. 5. In its October report to the council, the agency said 180 boats caught 19,676 coho in a single July 30 opener, and that it could not close the fishery before a scheduled Aug. 3 opener.

The preliminary report finds no overfishing of any federal Cook Inlet salmon stock, and none overfished or approaching that condition. NMFS has managed the federal-waters fishery since 2024; the state still manages fishing closer to shore. The 2026 fishery drew 347 federal permit holders, the most yet, and 275 of them landed fish. The catch had an estimated value at the dock of $10.2 million, $9.8 million of it from sockeye.

The sockeye numbers could still move. The preliminary safety margins are 37.7% for Kenai and 43.5% for Kasilof. Last cycle, the team first proposed 53.9% and 41.2%, and the council's Scientific and Statistical Committee cut both in half in February 2026, to 27% and 20.6%.

NMFS will update escapement data and model outputs after the December meeting. The science committee gives its final recommendations in February 2027, and the council recommends final 2027 limits then.