North Slope oil output trails state forecast by 3%, budget group says

North Slope oil production is running about 14,000 barrels a day below the state's budget forecast, a gap of roughly 3% with a quarter of fiscal 2027 complete, according to Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets.

The group posted the figure Thursday on Bluesky. Its chart compares the year-to-date production average against the Alaska Department of Revenue's spring forecast, using last year's production pattern as a baseline. The chart lists the forecast at 518,150 barrels a day. The department's Spring 2026 Revenue Forecast put fiscal 2027 output at 518,500 barrels a day. The group's posts do not include the state's own production records, and its adjusted figure has not been independently checked against them. The Department of Revenue's unadjusted daily figures average about 469,700 barrels a day from July 1 through Sept. 30.

The department projects $6.7 billion in unrestricted general fund revenue, money not earmarked by law, for fiscal 2027 (July 2026 through June 2027). About $4.0 billion of that is expected from the yearly draw on Permanent Fund earnings, which pays for both government services and dividends. Another $2.7 billion is forecast from oil, gas and other sources. The department attributed the forecast's production increase to the Pikka field.

Pikka reached first oil on May 18, according to a release from partners Repsol and Santos. On Sept. 2, Santos put Pikka at about 40,000 barrels a day, aiming for 80,000 by the end of September.

The group's Thursday tracking puts North Slope crude at $90 a barrel this fiscal year, against the state's $75 forecast.