Oil is beating the forecast, and it still won't cover a dividend

Alaska North Slope crude is trading about $11 a barrel above the price the state used to build this year's budget. That sounds like found money. It is not enough for one dividend.

By the math of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets, a fiscal policy group that tracks daily prices, the gap works out to roughly $482 million in extra revenue for the budget year that started this month. A $1,000 Permanent Fund Dividend costs the state about $680 million.

The reason the windfall lands softer than it used to is that oil no longer carries the budget. Petroleum supplies about 23 percent of Alaska's general-purpose revenue. Permanent Fund transfers supply close to 66 percent. A price swing that once reshaped a legislative session now moves a fraction of the total.

The cushion shrinks fast, too. For the years after this one, the group projects the gap narrowing to about $4 a barrel, or roughly $141 million a year.

It also cautions against treating any of it as spendable. Prices swing, forecasts get revised, and nothing is real until the legislature writes a budget and sets a dividend.