Kotzebue's chum run beat the forecast; the state will not say by how much

Kotzebue's commercial chum salmon harvest came in above what the state predicted this year. How far above, Fish and Game will not say.

The department's season summary, released Thursday, lists 2026's total catch, average catch per permit holder and gross value as confidential. Every other year in the table carries those numbers. The reason given is that "less than 3 processors participated in the fishery and chose not to waive confidentiality."

The table itself got shorter. The 2026 version starts in 2007. Last year's ran back to 1962.

What the summary does say is comparative. The chum harvest came in above the five-year average of about 150,000 fish, below the ten-year average of about 296,000, and above the preseason forecast of 50,000 to 150,000. Thirty-eight permits fished 43 eight-hour periods, which the department calls below-average participation. Two buyers registered.

That matters because of who fishes it. In 2024, the year the fishery was declared a disaster, 90 percent of permit holders lived in Kotzebue or the surrounding villages. That year 24 permits took 5,392 chum worth $25,091. Last year, 33 permits took 34,518 fish worth $93,167, the fourth-lowest harvest since the state began managing the district in 1962. The ten-year average value is just over $1 million.

The department handled it differently a year ago. The 2025 summary named both buyers, Copper River Seafoods and Arctic Circle Wild Salmon, and published the harvest: 268,095 pounds at 35 cents, down from 60 cents the year before.

The confidentiality statute does not set a three-processor threshold. It makes individual landing records confidential and says reports that do not identify individual fishermen, buyers or processors are public. The test is whether someone can be identified. Department guidance issued in 2022 adds that information will be withheld if a person with average knowledge of the fishery could identify a buyer and work out its business.

Nobody counted the fish upriver, either. The summary reports no escapement monitoring in 2026, citing weather and aircraft availability, the second consecutive year without it. The 2025 summary cited staff and budget. The department said in January it intended to resume aerial surveys on the Noatak and upper Kobuk, which have not been flown since 2014, and which are where the district's escapement goals are measured.

On subsistence, which the department does not assess annually there, staff called residents instead. Some said their needs were being met. Fishing was reported slow at times, but generally much better than last season.