Glenfarne says Alaska LNG cost estimate likely won't be public

Alaska lawmakers could be asked to commit roughly $800 million to the Alaska LNG project. The developer says the definitive cost estimate for the full project is most likely never going to be made public.

Glenfarne Alaska president Adam Prestidge told KDLL that "the ultimate cost to complete is going to be something that is most likely not going to be made public," according to a report published July 31 by Cook Inletkeeper.

The state-owned Alaska Gasline Development Corporation transferred 75 percent of the 800-mile project to Glenfarne in March under a nonpublic agreement. Glenfarne is running the engineering studies that produce the definitive cost estimate. The company is also raising construction capital toward a go/no-go decision.

The commonly cited figure for the full export project remains $44 billion. Independent analysts cited in the report say the current number could exceed $60 billion. Alaska LNG is one of several large US LNG export projects facing rising capital costs and scrutiny over whether published estimates still reflect current market conditions.

AGDC told the Alaska State Legislature that the state's 25 percent ownership carries the right, but not the obligation, to invest further. The state could contribute 7.5 percent of Phase 1 financing, about $800 million, for the in-state gasline. That decision is separate from the cost of the full export project. Prestidge told the Alaska House Finance Committee earlier this year that no single final number is possible yet because negotiations with multiple counterparties continue.

The report argues the secrecy also reaches utilities, because the price of gas delivered through the pipeline depends on what the pipeline costs to build. Cook Inlet gas is expected to become prohibitively expensive by the early 2030s and to fall short of demand by the middle of that decade. That leaves utilities to plan without knowing what North Slope gas would cost.

The near-term supply gap is why a second Nikiski project matters. Glenfarne is partnering with ENSTAR on an LNG import terminal on the same site. Glenfarne spokesperson Tim Fitzpatrick said the company's decision on the import terminal will be independent of Alaska LNG.