Wind watch upgraded to warning for the Western Arctic Coast and Shishmaref

Southwest winds of 30 to 45 mph, gusting to 65, are forecast for the Western Arctic coast from 4 am Thursday to 4 pm Friday. A second warning covers Shishmaref, the Bering Strait coast, Diomede and St. Lawrence Island with the same numbers, starting at 10 pm Wednesday. The National Weather Service in Fairbanks upgraded both from watches on Tuesday, meaning forecasters now expect this rather than think it possible.

The water comes with it. Advisories run from the Western and Northwest Arctic coasts down through Eastern Norton Sound, with levels 2 to 5 feet above the normal high tide line depending on the stretch, peaking at each high tide, from Tuesday night into Saturday morning. Kivalina and Red Dog Dock, the Baldwin Peninsula, the Lower Kobuk Valley and the northern Seward Peninsula are looking at 2 to 4 feet, as are Shishmaref and the Bering Strait coast. The southern Seward Peninsula is under an advisory for 3 to 4 feet. Every one of them warns of beach erosion.

The Weather Service says the wind may move loose debris, "damage property, and cause power outages," that travel could be difficult, and that people should secure anything not tied down.

For three of the communities in the path, erosion is not weather. A 2009 Government Accountability Office report counted 31 Alaska Native villages facing imminent threats from flooding and erosion, and found that Kivalina, Shaktoolik and Shishmaref would likely need to relocate all at once. Seventeen years ago, none of the three had a site all parties agreed was safe and sustainable. A single storm in 2013 took 60 feet of shoreline at Shishmaref.

The winds are forecast to ease Friday night into Saturday.