Flood watch warns Chena and Little Chena could top minor flood stage Wednesday

Half an inch to an inch of rain is due in Fairbanks between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon, and it is landing on ground that is already soaked. The National Weather Service has the Chena and Little Chena rivers under a flood watch from Tuesday afternoon through Saturday.

The watch covers Fairbanks, North Pole, Two Rivers, Fort Wainwright, Ester, Fox and Chena Hot Springs Road from milepost 12 to 34. "It has been very wet lately," the watch says, "and this amount of rain has the potential to bring the Chena and Little Chena Rivers above minor flood stage beginning Wednesday." Saturated ground also makes water pool in places that drain poorly.

The Little Chena is the one to watch. It read 17.6 feet Monday against an action stage of 21 and a minor flood stage of 25, and the river forecast issued minutes after the watch has it reaching 23.8 feet by Wednesday night, a little over a foot below flood stage. The Chena at Fairbanks has more room: it was at 5.25 feet Monday, with 5.86 forecast for Tuesday, against a minor flood stage of 12.

A flood watch means flooding is a threat but neither certain nor imminent. It replaced a hydrologic outlook issued Saturday, which had not expected flooding at all.

Fairbanks sits on a broad floodplain near where the Chena meets the Tanana, and borough emergency management documents say high water can reach two miles from the right bank. The 1967 flood killed six people, caused more than $85 million in damage and forced the evacuation of about 12,000. The borough joined the National Flood Insurance Program in 1970.

River gage forecasts are at weather.gov/aprfc.