Flood watches cover McGrath and Fairbanks as one storm moves across Alaska

The Kuskokwim River at McGrath is already at bankfull, and a flood watch takes effect there Monday afternoon. A second watch takes effect Tuesday afternoon for the Fairbanks Metro Area, where the Chena River sits well below flood stage. Both carry the same flood-watch label over rivers in very different condition, and both are pieces of a larger weather sequence moving across the state.

The National Weather Service office in Fairbanks issued both watches Sunday at 1:21 p.m. AKDT. They are two of 12 products active across Alaska, all issued Sunday between about 10:12 a.m. and 3 p.m. by the Fairbanks and Anchorage offices: five wind advisories, two hydrologic outlooks, a high wind watch, a high surf advisory and a special weather statement, running from Monday afternoon to Saturday afternoon.

The Upper Kuskokwim watch covers McGrath, Nikolai and Takotna from Monday afternoon through Friday afternoon and forecasts 1 to 2 inches of rain through Wednesday morning. "The Kuskokwim River is currently at bankfull. Soils remain moist and excessive runoff may result in localized flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, other low-lying areas and flood-prone locations," it said. The gauge at McGrath read 19.71 feet, above the action stage of 19.5 feet and 1.29 feet under minor flood stage of 21. The river should dip below bankfull Monday morning, then rise and stay high all week. At 20 feet, the Alaska Department of Natural Resources road near the softball field floods.

The Fairbanks watch covers Fairbanks, North Pole, Two Rivers, Fort Wainwright, Ester, Fox and Chena Hot Springs Road from milepost 12 to 34, Tuesday afternoon through Saturday afternoon, on 0.50 to 1.00 inches of rain Tuesday into Wednesday afternoon. "It has been very wet lately and this amount of rain has the potential to bring the Chena and Little Chena Rivers above minor flood stage beginning Wednesday," it said. The Chena at Fairbanks stood at 5.25 feet, against an action stage of 11 and minor flood stage of 12. The watch rests on saturated ground and the Little Chena, with pooling and ponding possible in low-lying spots.

The Fairbanks office warned on Sept. 4 that 0.75 to 1.25 inches of rain had fallen in 24 hours across the Western and Central Interior, leaving smaller feeder streams at risk of bankfull conditions.

Another Fairbanks outlook, for the Lower Yukon, Koyukuk and Innoko valleys, forecasts storm totals up to 2 inches, with no mainstem flooding expected but bankfull conditions likely through the week and localized flooding possible on smaller creeks and streams.

A high wind watch for the Yukon Delta Coast forecasts west winds of 30 to 40 mph gusting to 60, with possible property damage and power outages. The strongest gusts: 65 mph north of Trims Camp in the Eastern Alaska Range, 60 mph at Windy Pass in the Northern Denali Borough.

The high surf advisory for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island runs until 10 p.m. Tuesday, putting the coastal flood threat at 30 to 40 percent for Kwigillingok, Kongiganak and Kipnuk, with water 1.0 to 2.5 feet above the normal highest tide line and southwest winds gusting to 45 mph, and at 10 to 20 percent for Toksook Bay and Tununak. Breaking waves of 3 to 5 feet continue into Tuesday morning.

"A stronger low would allow for a more westward track, which could bring some low-end high surf conditions across more of the West Coast," the Fairbanks office said in a special weather statement for the Yukon Delta Coast.

Southcentral gets the heaviest totals. The Anchorage office forecasts 1 to 3 inches for the Matanuska and Susitna valleys, with Willow Creek and the Little Susitna reaching bankfull and low-lying gravel bars and other recreation spots that may become inundated. Flooding can be reported to the Anchorage office at 907-266-5127 and river conditions to the river forecast center at 907-266-5160.