Federal scientists recommend 11.7% lower 2027 Bering Sea Pacific cod catch ceiling

Federal scientists recommended a 2027 maximum acceptable biological catch of 123,787 metric tons for Eastern Bering Sea Pacific cod in a Nov. 3 draft assessment. That is 11.7% below the 140,135 tons the 2024 assessment forecast. The North Pacific Fishery Management Council's Groundfish Plan Team is scheduled to review the draft Nov. 16 through 20 in Seattle.

The figure is a ceiling, not the amount boats will fish. The council sets that limit later. It leaves room for the state-waters fishery, whose Bering Sea harvest level is 13% of the ceiling in 2026, and 13% or 14% in 2027. The final rule now in effect lists a 141,520-ton ceiling and a 123,077-ton federal limit for 2027.

The assessment, by Steven J. Barbeaux and six Alaska Fisheries Science Center co-authors, says most of the reduction comes from a downward revision of the 2024 survey estimate and a low 2026 survey. The 2026 model-based survey abundance estimate is the lowest since 1989, down 27% from 2025, though standard Eastern Bering Sea survey biomass rose to 621,000 tons from 548,000.

The estimated strength of the 2018, 2023 and 2025 year classes fell, partly offset by a stronger 2022 class. "These changes primarily reflect revisions to estimated year-class strength and population abundance rather than differences in model configuration," the authors wrote.

Projected 2027 spawning biomass falls 5.8%. The catch falls further, the authors say, because the stock is projected at 35.2% of its unfished spawning level, below the 40% mark where the harvest rule starts lowering the catch.

The overfishing limit would fall to 148,179 tons from 169,243 for 2026. The authors say the stock is not overfished or approaching that condition, and they did not recommend a cut below the maximum.

In October, federal managers twice moved cod trawl catcher-vessel quota that was not expected to be caught, 350 tons and 475 tons, mostly to hook-and-line and pot boats under 60 feet. As of Oct. 1, 88% of the Bering Sea limit outside the Community Development Quota program had been taken, and the managers' October report projected the fishery might close by month's end.

The Plan Team and the council's Scientific and Statistical Committee may change the figures before the council adopts final catch limits at its Dec. 4 to 9 meeting. Comments are due by 6 pm Alaska time Nov. 13 on the Plan Team page and by noon Nov. 27 for the council meeting.