Alaska sets 2027 Sitka Sound herring limit 17% lower, says 2026 forecast ran 14% high

The Alaska Department of Fish and Game on Thursday set the 2027 Sitka Sound sac roe herring limit at 28,980 tons. That is about 6,000 tons, or 17%, below the 35,015-ton limit set for 2026.

The limit, called the guideline harvest level, is 15% of a forecast 193,201 tons of mature herring, according to the department's announcement. The department says that forecast is 5% below its current model estimate of the 2026 mature biomass, 204,001 tons. A year ago it had forecast 233,433 tons for 2026.

The department now says that 2026 forecast ran 14% above its new estimate of the 2026 biomass. It kept the same statistical model, built on long-term egg surveys and herring ages, for 2027. "Given this performance and limited staff time, alternative model structures were not explored for the 2027 forecast," the department said.

When it set the 2026 limit on Dec. 19, the department warned of "greater uncertainty in the 2026 forecast compared to past forecasts" but did not lower the limit. It now says it will watch herring abundance during the season and take conservative management steps in the sac roe fishery if needed.

The 15% rate comes from a 2025 Board of Fisheries decision at its Southeast and Yakutat meeting in Ketchikan. The board lowered the maximum harvest rate from 20% to 15% and raised the level below which no fishery is held from 25,000 to 26,000 tons. Under the rule, the rate is set by formula between 10% and 15%; at this year's forecast, the 15% cap applies.

The fleet has taken a small share of recent limits. The 2026 fishery landed about 6,400 tons, 18% of its limit, with no harvest after April 2, according to the department's April 30 summary. The 2025 fishery took about 6,198 tons, or 17% of its limit.

Spring 2026 spawn covered 35.7 nautical miles of shoreline, down from 89.5 miles in 2025 and a 10-year average of 72.7 miles. About 14.4 miles were in the core subsistence area, which is closed to commercial fishing, down from 29.4 miles in 2025. Estimated egg deposition fell about 20% from 2025 but was still the sixth highest since 1976.