Trump says oil will "drop like a rock" after the Iran war, citing Alaska oil

President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on Friday that "oil prices are going to drop like a rock" once the Iran war ends. He listed "a lot of Texas oil, Alaska oil, Louisiana oil, Venezuela oil" among the supply he expects to bring prices down.

A reporter had asked about gas prices after a new inflation report. Trump said the war would end "very, very soon" and that oil is "sitting in boats waiting to be unloaded."

Trump has made the prediction before. He said in June that oil would "drop like a rock" once the war was over, as reported by CNN, and repeated the phrase in a Sept. 14 post on Truth Social.

Forecasters have been less certain. The federal Energy Information Administration expected Brent crude to average around $90 a barrel through the second half of 2026, and Brent closed above $101 on Sept. 9, up about 52% from a year earlier, Alaska News reported Sept. 10.

A price drop would matter to Alaska's treasury. Every dollar North Slope crude moves shifts the state's unrestricted general fund by roughly $35 million, according to the Department of Revenue.

The budget for the current fiscal year, which runs through June, rests on a spring forecast of $75 a barrel. With oil running about $19 above that, the budget is projected to end the year about $106 million ahead, Alaska News reported Sept. 24. The budget also ties $26 million in capital projects to North Slope crude averaging $80 or more from July through December.