State cuts next spring's Sitka Sound herring limit 17% as its forecast drops

The Alaska Department of Fish and Game on Thursday cut next spring's Sitka Sound commercial herring limit by 17%, to 28,980 tons, as its forecast of spawning herring dropped from a year ago.

The commercial fleet hasn't come close to its last two limits. Boats caught about 6,400 tons this spring, 18% of the 35,015-ton limit, and reported no catch after April 2, according to the department's season summary. In 2025 they caught about 6,200 tons, 17% of the limit.

The fishery uses purse seines to catch herring for their roe, the egg sacs inside the fish, as the herring gather to spawn in early spring. This year it was open on 13 days between March 27 and April 10.

The new limit is 15% of the 193,201 tons of mature herring the department forecasts for 2027. A year ago, it forecast 233,433 tons for 2026. Its updated estimate for 2026 is 204,001 tons, so that forecast ran 14% high. The department also expects smaller fish, averaging 144 grams, or about 5 ounces, down from 156 grams forecast for 2026.

The department said its forecasting model, built on decades of egg surveys and herring ages, "performed well," and it used the same model for 2027. "Given this performance and limited staff time, alternative model structures were not explored," it said.

Last December, the department warned of "greater uncertainty" in its forecast but kept the limit. For 2027, it says it will "take conservative management actions" during the season if needed.

The 15% rate is the cap the Board of Fisheries set at its 2025 Southeast meeting in Ketchikan, down from 20%.

This spring's spawn covered 35.7 nautical miles of shoreline, less than half of 2025's 89.5 miles and below the 10-year average of 72.7. Preliminary dive surveys in April found average egg density about double 2025's. The department now estimates total eggs were about 20% below 2025, still the sixth highest in records going back to 1976.

Subsistence harvesters also take herring eggs from Sitka Sound, almost all on hemlock branches. They took an estimated 104,000 pounds in 2025, according to the department's Division of Subsistence. That was below the 136,000 to 227,000 pounds the Board of Fisheries has found to be the "amount necessary for subsistence." Estimates for 2026 are expected near the end of the year.

Commercial fishing is closed in an area of Sitka Sound commonly called the core subsistence area. About 14.4 miles of this spring's spawn was there, down from 29.4 miles in 2025.

Earlier this week, the department cut the Craig and Klawock herring limit by 28%.