Peltola's Senate lead grows as Alaska counts nearly 5,000 more ballots

Alaska added nearly 5,000 ballots to its count Monday, and the new batch widened Democrat Mary Peltola's lead over Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in the U.S. Senate race.

Peltola now leads Sullivan by 2,517 first-choice votes in the Division of Elections' latest results, posted at 2:55 pm. Her lead was 637 votes in Wednesday's results.

On the ballots counted so far, Peltola would also finish ahead once ranked choices are counted, an Alaska News analysis of the state's updated ballot-level file shows. That's a change from Alaska News' earlier analysis of Wednesday's count, which found Sullivan would finish about 330 votes ahead. Using the same method, Peltola would now finish about 1,600 votes ahead.

The update added 4,947 ballots statewide. Nearly all were absentee ballots, and the last of the state's 401 precincts also reported. Peltola won about 68% of the Senate votes added Monday.

In the U.S. House race, nonpartisan Bill Hill gained 2,881 first-choice votes to Republican Rep. Nick Begich's 1,540. Begich still leads 107,187 to 88,904, but with 49.1% of first choices, he remains short of the majority needed to win without ranked-choice rounds.

In the governor's race, Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins' share of first-choice votes rose from 49.0% to 49.4%, leaving his ticket 1,258 votes short of a first-round majority. If about 60,000 valid votes for governor remain, he would need about 52% of them to clear 50% and avoid ranked-choice rounds. He won 68% of the governor votes added Monday. If he falls short, he would win about 56% in a final round against Republican Bernadette Wilson on the count so far, Alaska News' analysis of the updated file shows, up slightly from about 55% on Wednesday's count.

The "No" side on Ballot Measure 2, which would repeal Alaska's open primaries and ranked-choice general elections, also gained ground. "No" leads 52.3% to 47.7%, a gap of 9,539 votes, up from 7,580 on Wednesday. If that holds, Alaska would keep the current system.

"Yes" leads on Ballot Measure 3 with 69.4%. The measure would specify that only U.S. citizens who meet the other requirements may vote. Alaska law already requires citizenship, and the measure would not change the requirements to vote, according to its ballot summary.

Tens of thousands of ballots are still to be counted. The division had received 126,088 early, absentee and questioned ballots as of Monday afternoon, according to its ballot statistics. About 62,700 of those aren't in the results yet, by Alaska News' count, including about 20,000 early votes and 7,589 questioned ballots. Some absentee and questioned ballots can be rejected, and more mailed ballots can still arrive.

So far, Peltola has won about 57% of the early votes and 61% of the absentee votes counted, compared with 45% of Election Day votes. The early votes still to be counted were cast from Oct. 30 through Election Day and may not split the same way.

The state's ballot-level file now covers 210,944 of the 220,853 ballots cast in the Senate race. It doesn't include ballots counted only by hand, the division says. For ballots in the file whose first choice was Republican Gerald Heikes, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. or a write-in, Alaska News followed each ballot's rankings to see whether it would count for Peltola, for Sullivan or for neither once those candidates are eliminated. Ballots that ranked Heikes first favored Sullivan more than 2 to 1, and those that ranked Sullivan Jr. first favored Peltola about 3 to 2. Even if every such ballot missing from the file counted for Sullivan, Peltola would still finish nearly 1,000 votes ahead on the count so far.

The analysis isn't a forecast, and the result could change as more ballots are counted. The official ranked-choice count is scheduled for Nov. 18.

The division plans to count early votes cast from Oct. 30 on, along with questioned ballots, starting Tuesday. Absentee ballots postmarked by Election Day can arrive through Friday from inside the U.S. and through Nov. 18 from overseas. The state aims to certify the results Nov. 25.