Kuskokwim Delta water to rise 1 to 2 feet over high tide overnight, Kwigillingok at higher risk

Water along the Kuskokwim Delta coast is forecast to run 1 to 2 feet above normal high tide late Wednesday into early Thursday morning, and the National Weather Service in Anchorage puts the coastline around Kwigillingok among the places with a higher chance of impacts.

Southerly onshore winds gusting to 40 mph are driving the rise, along with a long fetch, the stretch of open water the wind crosses. The strongest winds are expected to peak Thursday morning. Up to half an inch of rain is forecast. Strong southerly winds will continue through Thursday afternoon and evening before slowly diminishing through Thursday night.

"Areas of the coastline that are perpendicular to the southerly wind direction, such as Kwigillingok, have a higher chance of seeing impacts with this front," NWS Anchorage said in a special weather statement issued at 5:44 a.m. Wednesday. The statement covers the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island and expires at 6 p.m. Wednesday. That is hours before the water is forecast to peak.

NOAA's Storm Events Database records that on Oct. 12, 2025, storm surge pushed water to 6.3 feet above the normal highest tide line at Kwigillingok, more than twice the previous record of 3.1 feet set in 1990. That line is the top of the range the tide normally reaches. "In Kwigillingok, an estimated 37 homes drifted from their foundation, and a preliminary assessment indicates every home in the community was affected," the NOAA event narrative states. Twenty-four people were rescued from two houses floating out to sea. The database records one death in Kwigillingok reported by state troopers, and two people still missing as of Dec. 3, 2025.

The USDA Northwest Climate Hub attributes rising exposure across western Alaska to declining sea ice, reporting Bering Sea ice coverage down 26% per decade since 1980.

A separate NWS Fairbanks statement puts water along the Yukon Delta Coast 1 to 2 feet above normal from late Thursday through Saturday morning. The same statement forecasts 2 to 4 feet above the normal high tide line in Norton Sound.