Near-term oil futures run $25 above Alaska's spring forecast, budget group says

Oil futures put near-term North Slope crude about $25 a barrel above the state's spring revenue forecast, according to a chart Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets published Friday. On the chart, the $25 figure applies to fiscal 2028: $95 against the forecast's $70.

In late September, the group put North Slope crude about $15 above the spring forecast, Alaska News reported Sept. 28.

The group converts ICE Brent futures to North Slope prices and compares them with the Department of Revenue's Spring 2026 forecast, the state's most recent 10-year outlook. By its count, midterm futures run about $9 above that forecast and long-term futures about $2 below it.

For fiscal 2027, now under way, the chart puts North Slope crude at $108, about $33 above the forecast's $75. The group estimates that gap would bring in about $1.64 billion more in unrestricted general fund revenue than forecast. It puts the fiscal 2027-36 average at $82 a barrel, about $490 million a year above forecast.

Alaska built its budget on $75 oil, Alaska News reported Oct. 30. The enacted budget makes $26 million in capital projects contingent on North Slope crude averaging $80 or more from July through December, according to the Legislature's fiscal summary of the budget. The group's daily chart Friday put the fiscal-year-to-date North Slope average at $97 a barrel.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's October Short-Term Energy Outlook forecast Brent crude at $105 a barrel for the fourth quarter, citing Middle East disruptions and falling global inventories, and $84 next year. The agency expects most Middle East oil production to return to pre-conflict levels by the end of June 2027. Brent reached $131 on Sept. 15.