Halibut commission staff recommend wider 2027 survey as bait costs jump 70%

International Pacific Halibut Commission staff on Oct. 30 recommended a 2027 survey plan that would add sampling near Adak and in five other regions, at a projected loss of $1.36 million. A $749,000 contribution the United States agreed to provide would cut that loss to $614,000, according to the staff paper.

The commission will choose the design at an online interim meeting Dec. 1. The setline survey is the commission's own longline survey. It tracks how many halibut there are and where they are, and it feeds the stock assessment behind each area's catch limit, including Area 4B in the Aleutians.

Bait drives much of the new cost. Chum salmon bait already bought for 2027 cost $4.09 a pound, up from $2.40 in 2026, a 70 percent increase staff call unanticipated. Even the base design would lose about $533,000.

The U.S. money pays for six additions: two regions near Adak in Area 4B with 29 stations each, Shelikof, Unalaska and two Bering Sea shelf edge regions. Shelikof and Adak were both in the approved 2026 plan but went unfished, Shelikof because of cost and Adak because no boat bid. Staff say the standard charter rate drew no Adak bids in 2023 or 2026, and western 4B stations went unsampled in 2022 for lack of viable bids.

Staff also offered an alternative, Option 10, that would pay a fixed $5,500 per station, 28 percent above the highest bid ever accepted at Adak, to sample all 118 Adak stations. Its projected net cost is $585,000, against $220,000 for the two cheaper Adak regions. Staff warned the cheaper route "carries a risk that the stations remain unfished" and asked commissioners whether the difference is warranted.

Six longliners fished 619 of 717 planned stations for the 2026 survey, or 86 percent. All 58 Adak stations went unfished for lack of a vessel, and 11 Seward stations were missed after the contracted boat broke down. Another 25 stations were ineffective, 14 of them lost to sperm whales and five to orcas.

The commission's January report found the stock's share in the Bering Sea and Aleutian regions has been rising, but little survey sampling in Region 4B from 2023 to 2025 has increased uncertainty about the stock's trend and scale there. Area 4B's 2026 mortality limit was 1.04 million pounds, unchanged from 2025.

Staff project base-design losses totaling $4.69 million from 2027 through 2031, enough to exhaust the survey reserve without more contributions. The reserve held about $1.16 million on Sept. 30, roughly 29 percent of the $4 million target commissioners adopted in January. Staff warned the commission could have to scale back survey coverage "in precisely the years when maintaining it matters most."

An expected 2026 surplus of about $2.48 million would bring the reserve within $400,000 of its target. Staff invite the United States and Canada to give $200,000 or up to the full balance.

The 2026 stock assessment and 2027 harvest decision table are due by Nov. 23. The commission's annual meeting in January will set 2027 catch limits and season dates.