Federal forecasters expect Alaska oil production to climb 13% next year

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Thursday it expects Alaska's oil production to climb 13% next year, to about 505,000 barrels a day, the most since 2014.

The agency expects a 6% increase this year. Both would be the largest yearly gains since the 1980s, when Alaska's production peaked at 2 million barrels a day. "After decades of decline, crude oil production in Alaska is growing, driven by two projects on Alaska's North Slope," the agency wrote.

The bigger one is Pikka, operated by Santos and co-owned by Repsol, which started producing in May. Santos said Pikka was producing about 69,000 barrels a day at the end of September and that it plans to hold near 70,000 for "a short period of time" before ramping up to its 80,000-barrel target. The EIA expects Pikka to peak at 80,000 by this winter, equal to nearly 20% of Alaska's daily production in 2025. ConocoPhillips' Nuna, which started in December 2024, has averaged 10,000 barrels a day this year and is expected to peak at 20,000.

Production usually dips in late summer, when operators do annual maintenance, but this year it grew in the third quarter, the first time in more than 40 years, according to the EIA.

The state's own daily figures put October at about 525,000 barrels a day, up 12% from a year earlier and the first month above 500,000 since February 2022. November has run higher so far. The state's numbers aren't the same as the EIA's. For August, the state had about 457,000 barrels a day and the EIA had 427,000.

Oil taxes and royalties help pay for state services and the Permanent Fund dividend. The Department of Revenue's spring forecast assumes 518,500 barrels a day for the fiscal year that began in July, more than the North Slope produced in any of the past four years. Production fell well short of that in July and August, leaving the average since July 1 at about 488,000, but October and early November have run above it.

The spring forecast puts production at about 622,000 barrels a day in fiscal 2032. It includes ConocoPhillips' Willow project, which the company expects to start producing in early 2029. The department's fall forecast, which will update those numbers, hasn't been released.