EIA forecasts Alaska oil output will rise 13% in 2027 to the most since 2014

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Thursday that Alaska crude production will climb 13% in 2027, to 505,000 barrels a day, the most since 2014.

The agency expects production to rise 6%, or 23,000 barrels a day, this year and 60,000 barrels a day next year. If that happens, those would be the largest increases since the 1980s, when Alaska output peaked at 2 million barrels a day.

"After decades of decline, crude oil production in Alaska is growing, driven by two projects on Alaska's North Slope," the EIA wrote.

Those projects are Pikka and Nuna. Pikka Phase 1, owned by Santos and Repsol, began production in May at 2,000 barrels a day and reached 38,000 by September, according to Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission data the EIA cited. The agency expects Pikka to peak at 80,000 barrels a day this winter, nearly 20% of Alaska's 2025 production. ConocoPhillips' Nuna project, online since December 2024, has averaged 10,000 barrels a day this year and is expected to peak at 20,000.

Third-quarter production rose 4% over the first quarter, the first third-quarter increase in more than 40 years. Summer maintenance normally leaves the third quarter about 7% below the first.

The state's own daily North Slope figures show the same turn. The Department of Revenue put October production at 524,740 barrels a day, up 12% from 467,673 a year earlier. Production from Nov. 1 through Nov. 9 averaged 532,780 barrels a day.

The state budget leans on those numbers. The department's Spring 2026 Revenue Forecast assumes 518,500 barrels a day of North Slope production for fiscal 2027, which runs from July 2026 through June 2027. The forecast projects $2.7 billion a year in unrestricted revenue, the money available for the Legislature to spend as it chooses, from sources other than the Permanent Fund transfer, oil and gas included. The department's Tax Division wrote that new development and drilling "support a forecast of stable and growing production through the decade."

So far this fiscal year, production is running below that assumption. July and August ran near 455,000 barrels a day, leaving the July 1 to Nov. 9 average around 487,000, though October and early November ran above it. The EIA expects output to dip to 457,000 barrels a day in July 2027 for summer maintenance, then climb back to 523,000 by the end of 2027.

The state and federal figures are not directly comparable. For August, the Department of Revenue reported North Slope production of 456,837 barrels a day; the EIA put Alaska crude at 427,000.

The Department of Revenue issues its forecast twice a year. The fall update, which will revise the fiscal 2027 production assumption, would be expected on that schedule, though no date has been given.