EIA expects Brent near $100 through December, when Alaska's $26 million oil trigger closes

The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects Brent crude to stay near $100 a barrel through December, the last month of the window that decides whether Alaska releases $26 million in contingent capital projects.

The enacted budget ties that $26 million to Alaska North Slope crude averaging $80 or more from July through December 2026, according to the Legislative Finance Division's UGF Short Fiscal Summary - FY26/FY27 Budget. The summary says the budget rests on the Department of Revenue's spring forecast of $75 a barrel for fiscal 2027.

The Legislature passed the capital budget in May, and it was signed into law June 24. At a House floor session on May 15, lawmakers described the contingent money as $10 million for the Don Young Port of Alaska, $10.65 million for school major maintenance, $3.25 million for University of Alaska Southeast and University of Alaska Anchorage projects, and $2 million for court security. The port money would add to $15 million already in the capital budget, bringing the Port of Alaska's total state capital funding to $25 million if the trigger holds.

The Division of Oil & Gas listed Alaska crude at $78.75 on July 27, $96.92 in early September and $107.54 on Oct. 1. North Slope crude hit $129.71 on Oct. 28, and the fiscal-year average stood at $97 at the end of October.

Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets, which publishes a daily price chart, puts the fiscal-year average to date at $99 as of Tuesday. Blending that figure with oil futures prices, the group projects a full-year average of $100, which it says would bring in about $1.22 billion more revenue than the spring forecast. Its projection stood at $102 and $1.37 billion a day earlier, and at $110 and $1.77 billion at the Oct. 30 close.

In its November Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA forecasts Brent falling below $90 in the second quarter of 2027 and to $77 by the fourth quarter. The agency says it expects more short-term volatility than its monthly forecast shows. Its forecast covers Brent, not North Slope crude.

For fiscal 2028 through 2036, the budget group tracks futures at $79 against a spring forecast of $71.

The trigger window closes Dec. 31. The Office of Management and Budget says the Department of Revenue's fall forecast, produced with the Department of Natural Resources, is used to build the budget for the coming year.