Draft assessment would raise Gulf pollock limit about 17% for 2027, then cut it for 2028

Federal scientists led by Cole Monnahan of NOAA's Alaska Fisheries Science Center on Monday recommended raising the 2027 acceptable biological catch for Gulf of Alaska walleye pollock to 155,551 metric tons, about 17% above this year's limit. The acceptable biological catch is the scientific ceiling on how much can be caught. Their draft stock assessment would then cut it to 106,221 tons for 2028.

The 2028 number is about 20% below this year's ceiling and about 32% below the draft's own 2027 number. The draft's overfishing limits are 180,370 tons for 2027 and 123,876 tons for 2028.

The figures cover the Gulf west of 140 degrees west longitude: the Western, Central and West Yakutat areas. A federal rule published March 11 set this year's ceiling there at 133,075 tons. After 3,326 tons, or 2.5%, is set aside for the state's Prince William Sound fishery, this year's federal total allowable catch, the working limit boats fish to, is 129,749 tons.

The draft is a peer-review draft and states that it does not represent any agency determination or policy. The North Pacific Fishery Management Council sets the final numbers in December in Anchorage.

The draft projects the stock's spawning biomass, its mature females, at 228,801 tons in 2027. That is 38.4% of the level with no fishing and below the 40% reference point of 238,000 tons.

The authors found the stock is not overfished and overfishing is not occurring. They put the chance of falling below 20% of the unfished level, where fishing that targets pollock shuts down, as negligible through 2031. All four categories of the draft's risk table scored "Level 1: Normal," so the authors recommended no cut below the maximum the rules allow.

Survey Data and Gaps

The surveys disagree. The 2026 winter acoustic survey in Shelikof Strait fell 34.6%, and the latest Alaska Department of Fish and Game bottom trawl survey fell 27.0%. The 2025 federal bottom trawl survey rose 34.9%, to the highest estimate on record.

Neither of the draft's models can match that federal survey's recent estimates, which show a strong increasing trend. "The reasons for this are unclear and will be explored in the coming years," the authors wrote. When the council's Scientific and Statistical Committee chose a new model for the stock in October, it called the mismatch "the highest priority for this stock."

No summer acoustic survey was run in 2025, and weather kept the 2026 Shelikof survey from finishing its southern area. The draft says no assessment was done in 2025 because of a prolonged partial government shutdown, so this year's limits rest on projections from the 2024 assessment.

The draft now estimates the fish born in 2020 and 2021 as fewer than first thought. Fish born in 2020 made up 36% of the 2025 catch. The draft's ecosystem section warns that a warm 2027 winter and spring under strong El Niño conditions, with less food, "may challenge the survival of 2027 year class."

The draft gives no single stated reason for the 2028 drop. Its projection assumes the full 2027 limit is caught and that the number of young fish joining the stock is average.

The draft calls its 2027 number a 14.1% decrease. Its executive summary measures that against the 2025 limit of 181,022 tons, set from the 2024 assessment. Against this year's limit of 133,075 tons, given in the draft's own status table and the federal rule, the 2027 recommendation is an increase.

Area Allocations

After the Prince William Sound share, which the state sets from the federal number, the draft would raise the Shumagin area about 44% from this year, to 39,492 tons; Chirikof about 13%, to 68,521 tons; and Kodiak about 6%, to 40,071 tons. West Yakutat would fall about 8%, to 3,577 tons.

East of 140 degrees, in the Southeast Outside area, the ceiling would fall from 9,749 tons to 5,700 tons for both 2027 and 2028. Trawling is banned there, and pollock catch has averaged about 2 tons a year since 2012.

The authors recommend Model 26b, which links the number of young fish joining the stock to ecosystem indicators such as water temperature and spring wind. The choice barely moves the number: Model 26a, which the science committee accepted as the new base model in October, gives a 2027 ceiling 227 tons higher.

What happens next

The Gulf of Alaska Groundfish Plan Team is scheduled to take up the draft Tuesday, Nov. 17, in Seattle. Written comment to the Plan Team closes Friday, Nov. 13, at 6 pm Alaska time, through the Plan Team meeting page.

The full council takes up the Gulf numbers Dec. 7 and 8 at the Egan Center in Anchorage. Written comment for that meeting closes Nov. 27 at noon Alaska time, through the council meeting page.

A final federal rule due in early 2027 will replace the 2027 numbers now on the books, the council's October newsletter says.