Peltola nears 50% and Begich's lead shrinks in new Nov. 13 results

New election results the state released Friday evening, Nov. 13, left Democrat Mary Peltola 445 votes short of a majority of the first-choice votes counted so far in Alaska's U.S. Senate race, and nonpartisan Bill Hill cut into Republican Rep. Nick Begich's lead in the U.S. House race.

The update added 22,511 ballots from every House district, about half of them absentee ballots from Anchorage, Eagle River and Chugiak. About 3,700 came from Southeast Alaska and about 2,000 from the Interior House district that stretches from Delta Junction and Glennallen to Galena and Fort Yukon, including the first absentee ballots counted there.

Peltola's lead over Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan grew to 10,412, up from 5,800 after Thursday's update. She has 49.84% of first-choice votes to Sullivan's 46.09% in the Division of Elections' latest results and won about 59% of the new Senate votes. Under state law, a candidate with more than half of the first-round votes when counting ends wins without ranked-choice rounds.

The division's live results page shows Peltola at 50.0% because it leaves write-in votes out of the total and rounds to one decimal place. Leaving out write-ins, she is 17 votes short.

About 10,500 ballots the division had accepted by Friday afternoon weren't in the results yet, by Alaska News' count from the division's ballot report. They include about 2,600 questioned ballots from Anchorage, Eagle River and Chugiak, which voters cast when election workers can't confirm their eligibility at the polls, and none of those have been counted. Ballots from overseas can still arrive through Nov. 18. To top 50%, Peltola would need about 54% of the Senate votes still to be counted, or a little less if more ballots arrive.

If she falls short, the race will go to ranked-choice rounds after the division's final count of absentee and questioned ballots, scheduled for Nov. 18. On the updated ballot-level file the state posted Friday, Peltola would finish about 9,500 votes ahead of Sullivan in that count on the ballots counted so far, up from about 4,900 Thursday, by Alaska News' math.

In the U.S. House race, Hill won about 48% of the new votes to Begich's 40%, cutting Begich's first-choice lead to 16,833, down from 18,781. Begich leads 47.8% to 41.7%.

On the ballots counted so far, Begich would finish about 8,200 votes ahead of Hill in a ranked-choice count, down from about 11,000 Thursday, by Alaska News' math. Most of the ballots that would move in that count are for Democrat Eric Hafner, and about 45% of them rank Hill next, compared with 6% for Begich. Hill would need more than 90% of the remaining ballots that rank him or Begich to catch up if about 10,500 are left, or about 80% if 15,000 are.

CNN projected Thursday evening that Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins will win the governor's race. In Friday's results, his ticket's share of first-choice votes rose to 50.81%, about 2,200 votes more than half, up from 125 on Thursday. He won about 60% of the new governor votes. If about 10,500 ballots are left, he would fall below 50% only if he won less than about 29% of the governor votes on them.