New models could cut Alaska's 2026 sablefish catch advice by nearly a third

New sablefish models could cut Alaska's 2026 sablefish catch advice by nearly a third, the stock assessment's authors, Daniel Goethel and Matt Cheng, told the North Pacific Fishery Management Council's Scientific and Statistical Committee on Tuesday.

Recalculated using data through 2025, the 2026 acceptable biological catch could fall to 32,000 metric tons under Model 26.2 FAA, or to 41,000 tons under Model 26.1, down from 47,008 tons in the current 2026 harvest specifications. A model approved in 2025 but shelved by the federal government shutdown had put the figure near 39,500 tons; Model 26.2 FAA comes in 18% lower than that.

Goethel stressed that these figures are 2026 catch advice, not a 2027 projection. The final 2027 recommendation will incorporate 2026 survey and age-composition data not yet available.

The authors describe the change as structural. Their fleets-as-areas model fits a longline survey that now covers about half the stock each year, and it projects faster biomass growth than earlier models. The Center for Independent Experts favored this approach, and the Joint Groundfish Plan Teams advanced it among several candidates.

Most of the nine people who testified urged a multiyear phase-in and the use of logbook data rather than an immediate cut. Robert Alverson of the Fishing Vessel Owners Association called the proposal "a $50 million hit for two models that are kind of all over the board." Lauren Howard, a longliner who recently bought quota, said the reduction "basically amounts to what my payment is." Alexander Stubbs backed Model 26.2 FAA, but with a phase-in.

The committee's review was advisory. The council is scheduled to set the total allowable catch in December, and the final number, along with any phase-in, remains undecided until then.