Matson expects modestly lower Alaska volume this year after a 4.8% quarterly drop

Matson, one of the main shipping lines serving Alaska, said Wednesday that its Alaska volume fell 4.8% in the third quarter and that it now expects full-year Alaska volume to come in "modestly lower" than 2025's.

The Honolulu-based company moved the equivalent of about 22,000 40-foot containers on its Alaska service from July through September, down from 23,100 a year earlier, according to results released Nov. 4. It attributed the drop mainly to less seafood heading south and an extra northbound sailing in the same months last year. Matson's figures combine freight moving in both directions.

The company's forecast for the year has changed each quarter. In May, Matson said it expected Alaska volume for 2026 to be comparable to last year's. In August, it said it expected volume to approach last year's level. Now it expects "modestly lower."

Alaska volume has been down from the year before in every quarter of 2026. It fell 2% in the first quarter, which Matson attributed mainly to lower general demand, and 2.3% in the second, mainly because less seafood was exported to Asia on its Alaska-Asia Express.

Matson's description of the state's economy has shifted, too. In May, it said it expected "continued economic growth in Alaska," supported in part by job growth. Since August, it has said it expects the economy "to remain stable," citing a low unemployment rate, a steady job market and continued oil and gas exploration and production.

For the company as a whole, Chief Executive Matt Cox called it "a stronger-than-expected third quarter." Matson raised its full-year outlook, and net income rose to $209.4 million from $134.7 million a year earlier. Cox said strong demand and high freight rates on Matson's China service, where volume rose 16%, drove a big increase in its ocean shipping profit. Hawaii volume slipped 0.3%, and Guam's rose 4.3%. Matson's filings don't break out Alaska revenue or profit.

Matson took over its Alaska service in 2015, when it bought Horizon Lines. On its website, it traces that service to 1964, after the Good Friday earthquake. Its ships run twice a week between Tacoma, Washington, and Anchorage and Kodiak, and once a week to Dutch Harbor. From Dutch Harbor, its Alaska-Asia Express carries cargo west to Ningbo and Shanghai in China.

In its quarterly report to the Securities and Exchange Commission, filed Nov. 5, Matson told investors that the aging cranes and docks at the Port of Alaska in Anchorage, which handles goods for about 90% of Alaskans, are "increasingly exposed to the risk of failure," especially in a severe earthquake or other natural disaster. The company said it has bought three used cranes for the port's new terminal to replace the aging ones.

The city began building the first of two new cargo terminals in March. Together they're now estimated to cost about $2 billion. To help pay for the rebuild, the surcharge on cargo crossing the port nearly triples Jan. 1.

The filing also says disruptions from severe weather and natural disasters could be "particularly acute" at Dutch Harbor and Kodiak, where Matson depends on a single crane. And it notes that swings in oil prices "could further impact the Alaskan economy," and with it Matson's business.