First Election Day Tapes from two statistically significant Anchorage precincts put Kreiss-Tomkins and Begich ahead of the field

Two Anchorage precincts that have closely tracked statewide results in recent elections recorded Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and Tom Begich well ahead of the rest of the 17-ticket governor field on Tuesday, according to tabulator receipts provided to Alaska News.

An Alaska News analysis of 12 statewide contests in 2022 and 2024 found both precincts landed near the statewide outcome, and each picked the same leading candidate or option as the state in 11 of the 12. Oceanview No. 3 averaged 3.16 percentage points of distance from the statewide result; South Midtown No. 3 averaged 3.76.

Whether that holds in a 17-ticket primary, where the leading share here is under a quarter of the vote, has not been tested. The result is not a projection. It covers 1,180 votes from two Election Day tabulators, and the two leaders are four votes apart across both.

In 10-165 Oceanview No. 3, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and Zac Johnson led the governor and lieutenant governor field with 130 votes, or 22.5% of the 579 votes cast in the governor race on that tabulator. Tom Begich and Julia Hnilicka followed with 113 votes, or 19.5%. Dave Bronson and Josh Church had 91 votes, Bernadette Wilson and Michael Shower had 73, and Treg Taylor and Candi English had 39.

In 13-315 South Midtown No. 3, the top two reversed. Begich and Hnilicka led with 150 votes, or 25.0% of the 601 votes cast in the governor race. Kreiss-Tomkins and Johnson followed with 137 votes, or 22.8%. Bronson and Church had 74 votes, Wilson and Shower had 54, and Taylor and English had 53.

Across both precincts, Kreiss-Tomkins and Johnson led 267 to 263. Four votes is about a third of one percent of the 1,180 cast, so the order between them means little.

The tickets listed above account for about 77% of the votes in each precinct. The remaining quarter went to the 12 tickets not named here.

Early, absentee, by-mail, electronic-transmission and questioned ballots are counted centrally by House district or other reporting category, and are not all assigned back to the named Election Day precinct on the receipt.

The figures come from two tabulator receipts provided to Alaska News and have not been checked against the Division of Elections count.