Agencies forecast 67 million Southeast pink salmon for 2027, most since 2013

NOAA Fisheries and the Alaska Department of Fish and Game on Oct. 28 forecast a 2027 Southeast Alaska pink salmon harvest of 67 million fish, the largest since 2013, when the fleet caught 94.7 million.

The agencies rate the outlook excellent, a category that starts at 48 million fish, and say it would rank fourth highest on record. Their 80% prediction interval runs from 42 million to 98 million fish.

The forecast rests mainly on a summer trawl survey of juvenile pink salmon in upper Chatham and Icy straits. For 2026, crews added weight to the trawl doors, the boards that hold the net open, which increased towing speed by about half a knot. The agencies say the change "likely increased catches in 2026." They say they cannot account for that effect until the doors have been used for several years and that the wide interval should capture the uncertainty. They also say above-average catches in nearly every trawl across a wide area give them confidence in the excellent rating.

The 2026 juvenile index of 3.51 was the highest since the research vessel Medeia took over the survey in 2018 and the largest since 2016, though eighth of 30 years overall. Harvests following indexes above 3.00 have ranged from 35 million to 95 million fish, averaging 59 million. The agencies say cool spring and early summer water temperatures also shaped the forecast.

The agencies changed the gear because they were worried slow trawling had caused underforecasts in recent big odd years. In 2021, 28 million fish were forecast and 48.5 million were caught. In 2023, 19 million were forecast and 48 million were caught. Both harvests landed above the prediction interval. After a model change, the 2025 harvest of 21.2 million fell inside the interval around a 29 million forecast.

Misses have run the other way too: the agencies' chart shows about 55 million forecast for 2015 against about 35 million caught.

The 2026 forecast was 19 million. When seining closed in September, the department put the catch at 19.8 million; its preliminary season tables now list about 20.5 million.

The fish expected in 2027 were spawned in 2025. That year's escapement index, the department's aerial-survey measure of pink salmon reaching spawning streams, was 14.14 million. Spawning goals were met or exceeded in all three Southeast subregions.

The forecast does not set the catch. The department says it will manage the purse seine fishery inseason from aerial surveys and fishery performance, though the forecast feeds the season plan: the 2026 plan says it was based partly on the preseason forecast.

Seine harvest value across all five salmon species has swung widely: about $154.1 million was paid at the dock in 2013, about $88.1 million in 2021 and about $39.8 million in 2025.

The Purse Seine Task Force meets Dec. 1 in Ketchikan to review the 2026 season and plan for 2027.