Yukon fall chum run clears the state's commercial threshold, but no commercial fishery has opened

The Yukon River fall chum run is large enough this year to allow a commercial fishery under state regulation for the first time since 2019. None has opened, and the state has not publicly said why.

The Alaska Department of Fish and Game reported in Fall Update #7 on Wednesday that "the fall chum salmon run is projecting to be greater than 900,000 fish, well above the upper end of the drainagewide escapement goal range of 300,000-600,000 fish," the spawners a run must leave behind. Under 5 AAC 01.249(5), when the projected run exceeds 550,000 chum salmon the commissioner may open commercial fisheries drainagewide by emergency order. Below that figure, 5 AAC 05.366(c) requires the department to prohibit them from July 13 through December 31.

The run passed that mark weeks ago. The department counted 752,000 fall chum as of August 25, above the historical median of 647,000 for the date. By September 7 the genetic estimate at the Pilot Station sonar stood at about 914,000 fish, and the sonar concluded operations for the season that day.

Seven fall updates have been issued in 2026. None mentions the commercial fishery, the 550,000 threshold, or a commercial surplus. They are part of a numbered series that had reached 20 announcements by Wednesday.

The department's stated reason is composition, not abundance. Canadian-origin fish were 15 percent of the run sampled June 6 to August 26, against a 30 percent historical average. The Yukon River Salmon Agreement with Canada sets interim goals of 70,000 to 104,000 fall chum for the mainstem and 22,000 to 49,000 for the Fishing Branch River. As of September 8 the Eagle sonar had 3,900 fall chum against a median of 10,000, and the Fishing Branch weir had 64 fish against a median of 700. The border goals "may be met, however there is not enough certainty in our projections to identify a large enough harvestable surplus to support directed fishing on those stocks," the department said in Wednesday's update. That reasoning is stated with respect to directed subsistence fishing. The announcements, which are the only record here, do not address the commercial question.

The same update says the treaty obligates the department to meet international objectives before opening directed subsistence fishing on the mainstem.

Yukon River fall chum is a designated stock of management concern, added in the 2025 Board of Fisheries cycle, a status for stocks that chronically miss their escapement goals.

The 2025 season summary records no commercial fishery for fall chum or coho that year, the sixth consecutive fall closure, and 2012 through 2019 harvests averaging 305,757 fall chum and 110,620 coho. The fall season averaged about $2.6 million a year to Yukon harvesters from 2016 through 2020. The last year with fall value was 2019, at roughly $1.4 million. Permits fished across the area fell from 424 in 2019 to 183 in 2020 to zero in 2021. ADF&G Technical Paper 398 records that commercial fishing and processing once provided about 46 percent of household money income in the lower Yukon region.

Regulation sets a guideline harvest range of 72,750 to 320,500 fall chum, the catch a fishery could take, split across Districts 1 through 6.

Subsistence fishing opened 24 hours a day in the Coastal District, Districts 1 through 3 and Subdistrict 4-A on Thursday, with Subdistricts 4-B and 4-C following Saturday. Upriver, the mainstem and Porcupine closures hold. Genetic samples from August 27 through September 7 are at the laboratory, with results due in the department's daily update list.