Third straight day of surge statements for Kotzebue Sound

Third Straight Day of Surge Statements for Kotzebue Sound

Water is forecast to run 1 to 2 feet above the normal high tide line around Kivalina, Red Dog Dock and the Baldwin Peninsula early Wednesday. That marks the fourth straight day the National Weather Service in Fairbanks has issued a special weather statement for that coast.

The statement, issued Tuesday afternoon, is in effect until 10:15 a.m. AKDT Wednesday. Forecasters expect the surge to peak in the early morning. They expect it to diminish rapidly Wednesday afternoon as a cold front moves through, bringing gusty westerly winds of 20 to 30 mph.

Earlier statements covered the same coast. Sunday's also included the Northern Seward Peninsula and Shishmaref, forecasting 1 to 1.5 feet above high tide behind a cold front with northwesterly gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Monday's repeated the 1-to-2-foot forecast for the northern shorelines of Kotzebue Sound. The weather service also issued a statement for Kivalina, Red Dog Dock, the Baldwin Peninsula, the Northern Seward Peninsula and Shishmaref on Saturday, July 25, forecasting 1 to 1.5 feet above the high tide line.

The weather service rated each event moderate in severity. The repetition fits a longer pattern along Alaska's Arctic coast, where communities including Kivalina and Shishmaref face increasingly frequent storm surges that drive flooding, erosion and infrastructure risk. In a 2025 coastal flood warning for Kivalina and Red Dog Dock, the weather service said water "will likely rise above the level of the seawall and many buildings and streets will flood." The Native Store, Friends Church and the water pump station were expected to be inundated, with "few roads" left passable in anything other than a boat. Red Dog's port facilities on the Chukchi Sea, used to ship mineral concentrates, sit on the same exposed shoreline.

In October 2025, the Alaska Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management activated the State Emergency Operation Center for a West Coast storm forecast to push high water into Kotzebue, Kivalina and Shishmaref. Communities including those three "are expected to be among the hardest hit," the division said at the time. Forecasters then anticipated "high water levels will enter these communities, posing a risk of damage to coastal infrastructure."