Peltola leads the poll. Sullivan leads the voters most likely to show up.

A bipartisan poll has Mary Peltola ahead of Sen. Dan Sullivan on first choices and after a ranked-choice simulation. The same poll shows the voters most likely to turn out favor Sullivan, which is why neither campaign is treating the number as settled.

The AARP survey of 800 likely Alaska voters, taken Sept. 8 to 11 by a Republican firm, Fabrizio Ward, and a Democratic one, Impact Research, put Peltola at 46 percent and Sullivan at 41, with Dan J. Sullivan Jr. at 4 percent, Gerald Heikes at 3, and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.5 points. When the survey eliminated the trailing candidates and redistributed their voters' next choices, Peltola finished ahead 53 to 47.

That simulation rests on firmer ground than the one in the governor's race. Only 11 percent of respondents ranked neither Peltola nor Sullivan, against a quarter who ranked neither finalist for governor. But the Senate non-rankers are not a neutral pool: they voted for Donald Trump in 2024 by 40 points, so the ballots most likely to drop out are ballots Sullivan would otherwise want.

Sullivan's path runs through older voters. Among Alaskans 50 and older, he led Peltola 49 to 42 on first choices and 54 to 46 in the final simulated round, and that group is where the electorate lives. The pollsters' model puts voters 50 and older at roughly two-thirds of those likely to cast a ballot, and their stated intent is the highest in the poll: 87 percent rated their likelihood of voting a 10 out of 10, and 92 percent of those 65 and older did, against 62 percent of voters under 50.

Peltola's path runs through everyone else. The poll's crosstabs show her ahead by 32 points among independents, 26 points among voters under 50 and 18 points among women, while Sullivan leads by 6 among men. Independents are the largest bloc in the state: nonpartisan and undeclared voters make up about 63 percent of Alaska's registered voters, according to the Division of Elections.

The money tells a similar two-sided story. Sullivan ended the last federal filing period with $7.3 million in cash on hand to Peltola's $4.6 million, the accumulated advantage of a two-term incumbent. But Peltola outraised him by nearly $5 million in the second quarter, $6.9 million to $2 million, and spent most of it. The third-quarter reports, covering the period that closes Sept. 30, become public Oct. 15.

The AARP poll is the newest of several and sits at the favorable end of Peltola's range. A running average of surveys has the two within a point, and a Rasmussen poll a week earlier had them tied. Peltola finished first in the August primary, 49.5 percent to Sullivan's 41.4, in the top-four system that sends the leading four candidates to November regardless of party. No Democrat has won an Alaska Senate seat since 2008.

The issues are what a reader would expect. Rising prices were the most-cited concern across the electorate, named by 42 percent as one of their top two. Among voters 50 and older, Social Security led at 78 percent, followed by everyday costs, health care and Medicare.

The poll tested Alaska's other two statewide races the same way. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins led the governor's race and won a ranked-choice simulation over Bernadette Wilson 55 to 45, and Rep. Nick Begich led Bill Hill for the House and won his simulation 57 to 43.

Alaskans rank the candidates Nov. 3. Voter registration closes Oct. 4.