Cook Political Report shifts Alaska Senate race to Toss Up as Peltola leads Sullivan

The Cook Political Report reclassified the Alaska U.S. Senate race from Lean Republican to Toss Up, reflecting a competitive statewide contest in which Democrat Mary Peltola leads incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan by five percentage points in a new poll.

The poll by Alaska Survey Research, conducted June 4-7 among 1,393 likely Alaska voters, shows Peltola at 49.4 percent and Sullivan at 44.2 percent. Republican candidates John Wayne Heikes received 4 percent and Darden received 3 percent. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The poll used a text-to-online methodology combined with Alaska Survey Research's survey panel.

Peltola's 49.4 percent falls short of the majority needed to win under Alaska's ranked-choice voting system. A candidate must achieve more than 50 percent of the vote after ranked-choice tabulation to win.

Alaska will hold a nonpartisan top-four primary on August 18. The top four candidates advance to a ranked-choice general election on November 3.

Peltola's campaign says her lead has narrowed since May after Republican super PACs committed tens of millions of dollars to attack ads against her. One super PAC alone has spent **$15 million**, according to Peltola's campaign. "The last poll showed our lead was nearly cut in half from what it was in May (and today's poll confirms that wasn't a fluke)," Peltola wrote in a campaign message.

Sullivan won re-election in 2020 with approximately 54 percent of the vote, before Alaska implemented its current ranked-choice voting system for federal elections.

Sullivan's campaign did not respond in the materials reviewed.