Crystal Ball shifts Alaska Senate race to toss-up as Peltola leads eight polls

The University of Virginia Center for Politics' Crystal Ball moved its rating of Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate race from "lean Republican" to "toss-up" this week — the second shift since former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola entered against incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan. A "toss-up" rating indicates either party could plausibly win. Crystal Ball, run by political scientist Larry Sabato at UVA, is widely cited in national election coverage as a nonpartisan assessment of competitive races. Peltola's campaign announced the reclassification June 11.

Sullivan, a Republican first elected in 2014 and re-elected in 2020 with 54 percent of the vote, serves on the Senate Armed Services Committee and is a colonel in the Marine Corps Reserve. He previously served as Alaska's attorney general and at the U.S. State Department. Peltola, a Democrat, won the at-large U.S. House seat in both a 2022 special election and the 2022 general election under Alaska's ranked-choice system, defeating former Governor Sarah Palin both times, then lost the 2024 House race to Nick Begich. Her House profile was bipartisan-coded, including support for the Willow Project.

Peltola's campaign said she has led Sullivan in eight consecutive polls but did not specify which polls or release methodology. The campaign also reported a Republican super PAC commitment of $15 million to oppose her and a separate $6 million attack ad buy; outside spending is reportable to the Federal Election Commission.

The campaign rolled out a "Wages-First" proposal that would restructure the corporate tax code to reward companies paying higher median wages with lower rates and impose higher taxes on companies that suppress wages or maintain extreme executive compensation. Her campaign said the proposal would reduce reliance on federal assistance programs and lower the deficit.

"My opponent has tripled his net worth in twelve years in Washington, even as Alaskans struggle to afford groceries," Peltola said.

Sullivan's campaign has not publicly responded to the Wages-First proposal. His Senate voting record on corporate tax policy has tracked Republican leadership positions including the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

Alaska's general election operates under the top-four primary and ranked-choice system adopted by voters in 2020. The general election is November 3, 2026.