New York Times/Siena poll shows Peltola leading Sullivan 50% to 43%

Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan 50% to 43% among likely Alaska voters in a New York Times/Siena poll released over the weekend. In June, the same pollster had her trailing Sullivan by 2 points, a 9-point swing in a race forecasters have rated a toss-up.

The poll's published methodology says it surveyed 504 likely voters from Sept. 24 through Oct. 1, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 points. Its Senate question named only Peltola and Sullivan; the poll simulated ranked-choice counts for governor and U.S. House, not for Senate.

The final ballot lists incumbent Dan S. Sullivan, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. and Gerald Heikes against Peltola, and Alaska settles the race by ranked-choice count.

Cook Political Report's ratings, updated Sept. 23, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, updated Sept. 22, both list the race as a toss-up. The general election is Nov. 3.