Kodiak is projected to lose about 1,200 residents by 2045 as young adults leave

The Kodiak Island Borough could lose roughly 1,200 residents over the next 20 years, according to the draft of its updated comprehensive plan. It's a continuation of a slide that has run through every census since 2000.

The plan puts the borough's population at 12,430 this year and projects it will fall to 11,240 by 2045 — a drop of about 9.5%, and part of a longer decline from 13,913 residents in 2000. The City of Kodiak is projected to shrink from about 5,240 to 4,300, and smaller communities like Larsen Bay and Karluk are expected to lose people too. The draft attributes the decline to young adults leaving, an aging population, and changes in the fishing and seafood-processing industries and military staffing.

The concern is landing with residents. Business owner Dan Rohr told the Assembly in May that state projections showing an island-wide population of 9,871 by 2050 were "scary numbers to me." That would be "20, pushing 25% less people than live here today," he said. "As a business owner and a building owner in the community, that worries me."

Kodiak's trajectory tracks a broader Alaska pattern of rural population loss and aging communities, with regional hubs and outlying villages faring differently. The draft notes that longer-term models expect the population to eventually stabilize at a smaller, older size, once the aging of the baby-boomer generation works through.

The Planning and Zoning Commission reviews the chapter at a work session Wednesday, with public comment on the draft expected this fall.