Heavy rain now expected in the Mat-Su, with rivers set to crest Wednesday

Forecasters now expect 3 to 5 inches of rain across the upper Yentna, Chulitna and Susitna basins from Monday through Wednesday, and rivers are likely to crest Wednesday or Wednesday night. The National Weather Service upgraded its flood watch Saturday, dropping the earlier hedge and calling the rain expected rather than just possible.

The crest should come in lower than the July 21-25 flood, but the ground it lands on hasn't recovered. The watch singles out the erosion-prone areas around Talkeetna and low-lying, poor-drainage spots across the valley. Flooding itself remains possible, not certain, but the setup, saturated basins and days of rain, is the kind that fills rivers, creeks and streams fast.

The people most exposed are the same ones the last flood hit. During the July event, the weather service warned residents and cabin owners along the Yentna near Lake Creek that water could reach a few low-lying cabins, and that gravel bars and low camping spots would flood. Those corridors are where this rain will be felt again first. Anyone in a flood-prone area should be ready to move and watching for later warnings.

The watch covers Palmer, Wasilla, Big Lake, Skwentna, Willow, Talkeetna, Trapper Creek and Petersville, and runs through midday Aug. 7.